Glenn Beck has joined the fight over NY-23.  AP Photo Evan Agostini

For a while now commentators have theorized that a real split may be occurring in the Republican party between more die hard conservatives and moderate Republicans within the party.  There has been real evidence of such a split recently as Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) was shouted down by Ron Paul supporters at a recent town hall and conservatives David Keene and John Zeigler attacked each other at a conservative conference (video here).

However in order for a split within the party to really be called a civil war it must in some way influence an actual election.  It seems that in New York's 23rd district we have the official start of a Civil War.

The 23rd district of New York favors Republicans by a large margin given the demographic makeup of the district.  You would therefore expect the Republican nominee, Dede Scozzafava, to be able to sweep away a victory in November 3rd special election given the momentum Republicans have working for them right now.  Instead a conservative named Doug Hoffmann has entered the race with forceful attack on Scozzafava as liberal Republican and has actually made New York's 23rd competitive for the Democrats.  Democrat Bill Ownes (who otherwise would not stand a chance in the district) actually now leads the in recent polls as Republicans split their vote between two candidates.

Rather than backing down from potentially handing the Democrats a Congressional seat the conservatives are actually energized in their movement to bring down Scozzafava.  In the two clips below Scoazzafava can be seen holding a press conference surrounded by signs for the conservative candidate Doug Hoffmann.  In the second clip conservative leader Glenn Beck chimes in and urges support for Hoffmann over Scozzafava. 

It is possible that conservatives could gain enough momentum to actually win the race and declare victory but history suggests that splitting the vote tends to lead to more losses than wins in U.S. politics.  Recent examples can be seen from recent elections such as 1992 when Ross Perot helped take votes from Republicans and hand a victory to Democrats in that Presidential race.  Even in 2000 when few doubt that Ralph Nader was decisive in helping defeat Al Gore in a very close election with George W. Bush.  If Republicans continue to be challenged in the 2010 midterms or even the 2012 general election it could allow Democrats to maintain control over Washington for a much longer time period.