How redistricting and Democratic duals may equate to a Republican rise in Maryland
While last night’s Iowa election results have already eliminated one candidate (Michelle Bachmann), with the possibility of Perry’s exit not far behind and New Hampshire’s Primary only days away; candidates vying for congressional seats in Maryland have only a week left to file their intentions to seek higher political office. And while many have already jumped into a crowded field of congressional competitors, there are a few big names still on the horizon as strong possibilities for both parties.
However, despite the democratic dominance usually witnessed throughout the state of Maryland, this year’s elections of one US Senator and eight congressional representatives may end up favoring a more united Republican front – if marketed and articulated correctly. For instance, based on the congressional redistricting debacle by Governor O’Malley and state Democrats, which left minority groups out in the cold and pissed off; coupled with unpopular ballot initiatives such as the Dream Act legislation and possibly Gay Marriage if passed during this session – GOP candidates could pick up quiet a bit of angry African American Democrats, and tilt the Independent base of voters to the right, instead of the left, this November.
Beginning with the highest office up for grabs during Maryland’s 2012 election season, the U.S. Senate seat currently held by first term Senator Ben Cardin seems to be one of no contest – or is it? As Cardin’s enormous name recognition and hefty bank account may have cleared the Democratic field of name brand candidates thus far, it is expected to get interesting this Thursday as Prince George’s County State Senator C. Anthony Muse is suppose to make his intentions known in Upper Marlboro. The Senior Pastor of one PG County’s largest and most prominent churches, who is also a second term senator representing Maryland’s 26th legislative district; has been in the process of exploring the possibility of such a run since August 2011. Yet, with little statewide name recognition and seemingly an uphill financial struggle ahead of him, Muse’s decision to buck the traditional Democratic Party establishment and run against an incumbent colleague baffles many?
As an excellent orator, legislator and independent thinker, who time and time again seems to represent the people’s interest over that of his own party’s, Muse may not have enough time to make the upcoming April 3rd Primary a close contest. However, if he decides to run as an Independent (Democrat), which would give him the rest of 2012 to raise money and his name awareness throughout the state, Muse could possibly make this race extremely interesting? Joining Muse and Cardin in the Primaries are 14 other candidates thus far, with six Democrats and eight Republicans filed already to challenge the first term Senator. And while the recent party-favored redistricting map won’t really affect this statewide seat, it can go a long way in helping a well financed and popular outsider, who shines the light on the Democratic policies that may seem highly unpopular at the time.
1st District
Only two Democrats have filed for this seat thus far, as the first term Republican Congressman Andy Harris has strengthened his dominance in this district through the GRAC approved Redistricting Map. Already a heavy favorite to win re-election in this conservative leaning district, Governor O’Malley and the Democrats basically ensured the Republican dominance of this district, as they diluted that of the 6th district, which is the only other Republican represented district in Maryland. (John LeFerla and Wendy Rosen are the Democrats filed in District 1)
2nd District
Having only one Republican filed to challenge the highly popular Democratic incumbent Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger thus far, one of the state’s most prominent Republicans seems intent on filing to run in this district on Thursday morning. State Senator Nancy Jacobs, the four-term senator for the 34th district, who recently resigned from her position as Minority Leader in the Maryland State Senate, has since decided to run against Ruppersberger, who has served this district since 2002. The redrawn district now stretches into portions of Harford County where Jacobs has remained well liked and popular, thus leaving this race one to follow in 2012. Rumors were that Larry Smith, a former aide to Congressman Andy Harris was also suppose to seek the Republican nomination for this district; however, as of now Howard Orton is the only person to have filed for the seat.
3rd District
The district currently held by Democratic Congressman John Sarbanes, son of the prominent longtime Maryland U.S. Senator Paul Sarbanes; seeks his third term after being elected in 2006 to represent this district. Those filed thus far is a Baltimore black republican Thomas ‘Pinkston’ Harris and Republican Draper S. Phelps; also filed is Silver Spring Democrat David Lockwood, who serves as a consultant for the IRS.
4th District
One of the most interesting districts to follow will be the fourth district, as incumbent Democrat Congresswoman Donna Edwards seemed to have been thrown to the wolves by her fellow Dems; leaving the path to congress wide open for the former Prince George’s County Prosecutor Glenn Ivey. While the redistricting map eliminated the financially prominent parts of Montgomery County, which favored the two term congresswoman, the district that now solely encompasses the greater majority of PG County, seems to have favored the very popular and well liked former prosecutor. However, while Ivey is expected to file for this seat, he has yet to do such officially, while rumors persist that 22nd district Delegate Justin Ross may also jump into the fray and allow both Edwards and Ivey split up the black vote while he pulls a 1999 Martin O’Malley maneuver that leaves him the lone white victor in an African American dominate district. Yet, neither has filed to run against Edwards, who nationally is a very popular progressive Democrat that is sure to raise quiet a bit of money outside the state of Maryland. Ian Gardner and George McDermott, have both filed to run for this seat in the April 3rd Democratic Primary.
5th District
The district long held by the Democratic minority whip in the House of Representatives Congressman Steny Hoyer, now will have an interesting challenge by the Republican minority leader in the Md. House of Delegates, as Delegate Tony O’Donnell has filed to run against the entrenched incumbent. Fending off would-be challengers has always been a gift that Hoyer has seemingly handled with ease; however O’Donnell presents an interesting challenge to Steny, who was one of the main advocates behind the recent redistricting map. Though Republican David Hill and Democrat Cathy Johnson Pendleton have filed to run in the April Primaries, these two candidates will have an uphill battle trying to overcome the name recognition of both Hoyer and O’Donnell. This could be one district that Republicans could pull off an upset – maybe?
6th District
The most contentious district in the entire state, in which Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlett has served in for 10-terms, or 20-years; yet was the district targeted by the O’Malley led Redistricting team. While Bartlett has never been known to be a substantial fundraiser – because he never had to raise more than $1,000 in a cycle to keep his conservative leaning seat – he now appears destined for defeat by either 15th District State Senator Democrat Rob Garagiola or one of the many prominent GOP contenders vying for his seat. Having never dipped below receiving less than 55% of the vote in this district since the year he won the seat in 1992, the popular, and old, Congressman Bartlett is facing stiff opposition from both sides of the aisle. While many believe Garagiola to be a shoe-in for the Democratic nominee – as O’Malley and Senate President Thomas ‘Mike’ Miller have been said to have drawn this map specifically for the state senator – there is currently only one other Democrat filed to run for this seat – Milad Pooran. However, it is the Republican field of candidates that may give the congressman the most trouble, as he currently is set to face the likes of current 4th District State Senator David Brinkley, and the ever popular former state senator and current state GOP Party Chairman, Alex Mooney. Even still, there are already four other Republicans filed to run in this district – not including Harold ‘Bud’ Otis, Bartlett’s former Chief of Staff, who is rumored to be running in his former bosses district – such as Robert Coblentz, Joseph Krysztoforski, Branson O. Rippeon and the ever popular local candidate Robin Ficker. This is sure to be the most interesting Primary, and General Election of the year in Maryland.
7th District
Which now encompassed the entire City of Baltimore, along with portions of Baltimore and Howard counties looks to be easy pickings for the longtime incumbent Democratic Congressman, Elijah Cummings. However, perennial candidates Charles U. Smith (D) and Ray Bly (R) have filed to run in this district, along with Ty Glen Busch (D) and Independent candidate Robert Henry Brookman.
8th District
This district, which is home to incumbent Democratic rising star Congressman Chris Van Hollen, seems to have only token opposition in the race thus far, with two Republicans vying for the Montgomery County seat – Shelly Skolnick and Dave Wallace. We’ll see?
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