U.S. defense leaders are worried Israel is readying to launch a unilateral attack against Iran, despite Washington’s objections, in an effort to thwart Tehran’s nuclear program. Meanwhile, tensions continue to escalate between the U.S. and Iran which has threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in the face of intensified sanctions.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. military is scrambling to protect American assets in the Middle East from potential Iranian reprisals if Israel does strike, including attacks by pro-Iranian Shiite militias against the U.S. Embassy in Iraq. The U.S. has also pre-positioned aircraft in the region and accelerated arms transfers to Persian Gulf allies.
The U.S. is trying to convince Israel that more sanctions can force Iran to abandon its nuclear program, which Tehran insists is intended for generating energy and developing medical isotopes.
Although the EU appears ready to join the U.S. in levying tougher sanctions, Russia, China and Japan are reluctant to embargo Iranian oil for fear of soaring prices. In fact, according to AFP, Moscow emphasized that it would perceive hostile action against Iran as a threat to its own security:
Russia warned Friday that any oil embargo would be seen as an attempt to force regime change in Iran, rather than as a bid to halt enrichment.
Turkey said it would not be bound by any sanctions not endorsed by the UN Security Council while India declared it had no intention of reducing imports of Iranian crude. The AFP’s Philippe Rater underlines an ominous reality for the U.S. and its allies, writing:
…the recession-hit West no longer dominates international relations like it did at the start of the crisis in 2005. Rising economic powers also have a role to play, and will defend their interests.
Senior U.S. officials, including President Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, have sent a number of stern warnings to Israel about the negative ramifications of a military strike. As the WSJ reports:
Mr. Panetta and other top officials have privately sought assurances from Israeli leaders in recent weeks that they won't take military action against Iran. But the Israeli response has been noncommittal, U.S. officials said.
"Our concern is heightened," a senior U.S. military official said of the probability of an Israeli strike over U.S. objections.
Many hawks in the U.S., including a few Republican primary candidates, see an airtrike as the only option remaining and that Iran has had enough chances to modify its course.
Tehran has warned that it could retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant percentage of the world’s traded oil passes.
However, Saudi Arabia indicated that it would fill the petro gap in case Iran does try such a maneuver, by tapping into the kingdom’s additional capacity which would also help stabilize the oil markets.
On Thursday Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to avenge the assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist that Tehran has blamed on Israeli and U.S. intelligence.
Tehran crossed one of Israel's major "red lines" earlier this month when Iran announced it had begun enriching uranium at an underground facility near the holy city of Qom.
Israel’s recent closure of a nuclear facility in Dimona set off alarms in Washington as it indicated Tel Aviv was safeguarding assets against potential Iranian counterstrikes.
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