Update on March 6th Storm Potential
Good morning folks, I did want to give a quick update on the winter storm potential for the middle of this upcoming week. Most of the model trends in the last 24 hours have been for less snow across North Carolina and nothing south of there really. The reason is that the cut-off low has not been forecast to trend any further south in recent runs and looks to take a trajectory from the Midwest to North Carolina. Usually you want a cut-off low to move eastward across the interior Southeast or Gulf Coast to put the upper Southeast in a favorable area for winter weather. There is still time from this to trend south, but we are getting closer and closer now to the event, so odds are decreasing.
It look like the area with the best chance of a significant snowfall right now could be central/eastern Va, DC, Maryland, and the southern Delmarva. Across North Carolina, as it stands now, we could see rain changing to snow from west to east during the morning hours on Wednesday with perhaps some light accumulations. Wednesday will likely be a wintry day with snow showers perhaps scattered around the state on the back side of this storm system.