As the 2012 U.S. presidential election season officially begins, border states are pushing to make locally specific issues, most importantly immigration enforcement and reform, top priorities among the prospective candidates. However, while we wait in anticipation of the potential outcome of this election on our region, there is another upcoming election that could also have far reaching implications for the border, but which is largely going undiscussed: the 2012 presidential election in Mexico.
On July 1 of this year, Mexican voters will decide who is to replace outgoing President Felipe Calderón. The current frontrunner for the office is PRI candidate and former governor of Mexico state, Enrique Pena Nieto. Pena Nieto is well known as a critic of the corrupt nature of Mexican politics and has presented himself as the transparent candidate for the office. Others in the running include 2006 presidential election runner up Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Georgetown-educated lawyer Santiago Creel and close Calderón allies Josefina Vazquez Mota and Ernesto Cordero
There are a variety of reasons why the U.S. border states in particular may want to pay close attention to the outcome of the 2012 Mexican presidential election. First, Mexico has long experienced periods of financial upheaval tied to its country’s presidential elections. In 1994, when Ernesto Zedillo took over the office from Carlos Salinas de Gortari, there was a massive devaluation of the peso, which precipitated a nationwide economic crisis. Although it is unlikely that such an event would occur in 2012, a sudden economic downturn in Mexico would certainly have negative impacts on the economy of the U.S. border-region.
More likely, however, is that our region could be affected by the policy implications of installing a new Mexican president, possibly from a new party. Calderón has actively sought to form close trade, security and energy relationships with Arizona, California, Texas and New Mexico. It is unclear if his successor will continue to foment these relationships. It is similarly unclear how the policies of a new president might impact Mexican immigration to the U.S.
One additional reason the border area residents should start following the Mexican presidential race is that a great many of us have the opportunity to vote in it. Although in 2006, any immigrant choosing to vote for president had to be physically present in Mexico, a new law recently passed allows immigrants with Mexican citizenship to cast their votes from the U.S. and other countries. In Arizona alone, almost 15 percent of the population is foreign born, a large portion of which includes Mexican nationals. Thus, local residents could have a significant impact on the outcome of this foreign election.
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