Raleigh Weather Discussion
Temperatures will be near normal today and then above normal tomorrow before we see a chance of some light precipitation Saturday. While the models are still tantalizingly close to some wintry precipitation around here Saturday evening/night, most guidance still shows the storm will develop far enough off shore to spare the region any significant precipitation. The upper level trough may spawn a few rain/snow showers Saturday and Saturday evening as it moves across the state, but probably nothing of significance. I will continue to watch it though.
Cold air will pour in behind this system for Sunday and Monday with lows once again back into the low to mid 20s. The active weather pattern continues with another system slated to move through Tuesday with rain likely Tuesday afternoon and evening. The storm system for late next week looks to be a rain event as well. We will likely see some cold air damming, but the primary low is being shown by all models to move towards Chicago with re-development possible along the mid-Atlantic coast. The damming will likely ensure a cold rain at least. Since this is 8-9 days away, details can change so I will monitor of course.
It looks like more cold air will move in behind this storm system for next weekend.
National Extended Weather Discussion
The pattern continues to look to favor cold in the West and Central US, with the East likely variable with the average near or a little above normal. The NAO is going to be negative but with a vortex over Alaska and a persistent trough in the West, the NAO doesn’t really help the east get cold.
The MJO is currently in phase 2 and progressing and the model forecasts are for continued progression into the warmer stages 3-6, so the general warmer than normal forecast for the East seems to have some support.