Raleigh Weather Discussion
Rain will end by mid-day today, with cooler weather to follow again. Normal highs by mid-march are climbing into the mid 60s making the 50s that we will experience the next few days below normal. Thursday morning looks particularly chilly with temps likely to dip into the mid to upper 20s.
A complicated weather pattern develops for the weekend into early next weekend. A strong cold front will likely stall out somewhere in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic with a very strong north-south temperature gradient. This makes for a tricky forecast with plenty of bust potential, particularly on Sunday. I have pretty high confidence that Saturday is going to be a warm day with any rain likely holding off until late in the day. Look for highs on Saturday to be around 70 or into the low 70s. Sunday and Monday could either end up being warmer with highs well into the 60s or cooler with cold air damming meaning 50s or perhaps even cooler temps with clouds and rain. So keep in mind the Sunday/Monday time frame is very much up for debate.
It looks like the storm system will move through on Tuesday with another chance for rain and temps back into the mid or upper 60s.
We could see another complex storm system by late next week with more potential cold air damming and rain fall.
National Extended Weather Discussion
Models continue to forecast strong blocking to continue (-AO/-NAO) through the end of March. This should lead to a general cooler than normal weather pattern for a good deal of the US, shifting more to the central/Eastern US by late March.
The PNA is forecast though to be negative so the cool weather will likely not be too intense and could cover a good deal of the US including the West, especially early. The MJO is currently in phase 6/7 but the eventual progression into phases 8,1 as forecast by various models lends support to the cool forecast through the end of the month.