Strong low pressure over the center of the nation this morning will track northward, toward the upper Great Lakes, this evening. A surge of mild air will advance into the Capital Region thanks to this storm track. The milder air will be a bit delayed in coming though, as it will take time for the mild airmass to scour out the chilly, sub-freezing airmass in place over our area. Precipitation is expected to break out this afternoon in response to the warmer airmass overrunning the cooler air in place at the surface over our region. This type of scenario usually leads to a steady, light precipitation event, and this has been forecast. Temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing with the onset of the precipitation, and thus rain is the predominant precipitation type expected. There may be some pockets of freezing rain and/or sleet in sheltered valley locations where the cold air at the surface is slow to vacate.
As the low pressure area lifts northward into central Canada by tomorrow morning, precipitation should slowly come to an end across the Capital Region. With no defined cold front actually coming through the area, temperatures are expected to climb on Saturday afternoon, especially should any sunshine poke through the cloud cover. The same will hold true for Sunday, though a bit more cloud cover is anticipated, temperatures should start out the day on Sunday a few degrees higher than those of Saturday, thus the Capital Region could crack the 50 degree mark.
A weak cold front looks to pass through the region on Monday, followed by what looks to be a stronger cold front on Tuesday. The second frontal system may very well initiate a decidedly colder turn to the weather over the region by the middle to later portions of the work week next week. Some indications suggest that bone chilling cold may settle into the region by this time next week, along with the chance for some snow showers. Stay tuned for further details in later updates!
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
Today: Increasing, thickening and lowering clouds with periods of light rain and showers developing during the afternoon. High 40-45. South winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Tonight: Periods of light rain and showers. Low near 35. Light southerly winds. Chance of rain is 70 percent.
Saturday: Morning rain showers giving way to intervals of clouds and sunshine by afternoon. High in the upper 40's. South winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain in the morning is 40 percent.
Saturday Night: Increasing clouds. Low in the mid 30's. Light southerly winds.
Sunday: Cloudy and unseasonably mild with a chance of showers. High near 50. Southerly winds 5-15 MPH. Chance of rain is 30 percent.
Monday: Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. High near 45 and low near 40.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of light rain and/or snow. High near 35 and low near 25.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a 30 percent of snow showers. High near 35 and low near 25.
Useful links...
Capital Region Weather Examiner Home Page
Capital Region Weather Examiner Facebook page
Current Surface Weather Map
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) Surface Weather Map 48 hour loop forecast
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