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University of Colorado prediction model predicts Romney win

As if the polls slowly shifting towards Romney aren't enough encouragement, a University of Colorado prediction model predicts a Romney win by a fairly large margin. According to The Blaze "Bickers and Berry, using their metrics, are able to retroactively predict every presidential win since 1980." If this model holds up with its accuracy we could see President Obama pushed out of office. After the first debate, President Obama's poll numbers have begun to drop, and many believe it may have turned the direction that independent voters are starting to sway.

A map showing the prediction from the University of Colorado model.

The model is one of a kind, rather than using polling data to attempt to predict the outcome, it uses various factors on a state to state level to predict which way each state will vote. According to the model, every swing state will go to Romney including Colorado. The Daily Caller reports a prediction of a Romney win according to the model of 320-218 electoral votes.

The Obama campaign is also worried about accusations of foreign donations. A reported 68% of traffic to is from foreign users. This could spell trouble for the campaign if large contributions are revealed to be coming from foreign donors. With possible scandals, declining poll numbers, and declining favor-ability, Obama may be in trouble. The Daily Beast shows Romney with a 49-45 lead from likely voters and shows Obama's favor-ability declining from 55% to 49%.

With the prediction models, poll changes, and other factors it seems that Romney may be pulling ahead. What many democrats believed would be an easy reelection has now started to look more like a very close race and may possible become a one-sided show as Romney gains traction with independents. Watch the polls in the recent future as they may shift even further as we get closer to the November elections.


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