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UFC FN 38: Shogun vs. Henderson 2: Full card predictions

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UFC FN 38 is this Sunday, March 23 at the Ginasio Nelio Dias in Natal, Brazil. Online prelims start at 4:00p.m., Sportsnet 360 airs the next block of prelims at 5:00p.m., and the main card can also be seen on Sportsnet 360 at 7:00p.m. The main event will feature a rematch from the 2011 Fight of the Year between top Light Heavyweight contenders Mauricio Shogun Rua and Dan Henderson. Enjoy the predictions and UFC FN 38 fight card.

Fight Pass Prelims: 0-2-0

205 lbs. – Francimar Barroso (1-0 UFC) vs. Hans Stringer (0-0 UFC) – Barroso via decision
Both men are experienced well-rounded fighters, but Barroso will have an edge in the striking with his hard leg kicks. Barroso should also dictate whether or not the fight goes to the ground. Wrong - Stringer via S. decision

145 lbs. – Godofredo Castro (1-3 UFC) vs. Noad Lahat (0-0 UFC) – Lahat via decision Castro has really struggled in his last 2 fights losing both via TKO. Lahat is a solid grappler and should find success with his takedowns, top control and ground & pound. Wrong - Castro via TKO

Fox Sports Prelims: 0-3-0

170 lbs. – Thiago Perpetuo (1-1 UFC) vs. Kenny Robertson (1-2 UFC) – Perpetuo via TKO
Robertson has a great wrestling base, but he has struggled with his takedowns inside the octagon. Perpetuo should defend those takedown attempts and land a plenty of strikes. Wrong - Robertson via submission

125 lbs. – Jussier Formiga (1-2 UFC) vs. Scott Jorgensen (3-4 UFC) – Jorgensen via decision
This should be a back and forth fight with both men landing strikes and showing their grappling skill, but Jorgensen should be able to steal at least 2 rounds with his wrestling and takedowns. Wrong - Formiga via submission

185 lbs. – Ronny Markes (3-1 UFC) vs. Thiago Santos (0-1 UFC) – Markes via TKO
Markes is a very strong grappler with good striking, but Santos is also a good striker so Markes may try to take it to the ground where he could easily control Santos and look for the finish. Wrong - Santos via TKO

145 lbs. – Diego Brandao (4-2 UFC) vs. Will Chope (0-1 UFC) – Brandao via TKO
Chope will have a huge reach/height advantage, but it barely seemed to help in his fight with Max Holloway. Brandao should be able to get inside the reach and unload with his power. No Contest

Main Card: 2-3-1 Total MMA Predictions: 467-265-3 = 64%

145 lbs. – Rony Jason (3-1 UFC) vs. Steven Siler (5-2 UFC) - Jason via submission Jason is coming off a loss via KO to Jeremy Stephens which halted his 3 fight win streak. Stephens caught Jason with a head kick early in round 1, but Jason is still a dangerous opponent for any Featherweight. Siler lost a unanimous decision to wrestling stud Dennis Bermudez in his last fight, but showed his heart and overall skill. On the feet Jason should have the advantage with his power and aggressive style, but as seen in his last fight he can be caught so don’t be surprised if Siler uses his technique and finds an opening. On the ground Jason should no doubt have the advantage and if he pursues a grappling attack he might be able to lock in a submission finish as well. Siler will again put on a great fight, but Jason seems to have the advantage wherever the fight goes. Correct (Jason via TKO)

155 lbs. – Michel Prazeres (1-1 UFC) vs. Mairbek Taisumov (1-0 UFC) - Taisumov via TKO
Prazeres bounced back from a loss in his UFC debut and defeated Jesse Ronson via split decision in his last fight. Taisumov won his UFC debut against a fellow new comer Tae Hyun Bang via unanimous decision. On the feet Taisumov will have a clear advantage with speed, power and technique so expect him to look for the knockout. Prazeres should have a grappling advantage on the ground, but Taisumov also has a strong grappling game and should be able to defend takedowns. Taisumov will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns for 3 rounds. Wrong - Prazeres via U. decision

205 lbs. – Fabio Maldonado (3-3 UFC) vs. Gian Villante (1-1 UFC) - Villante via decision
Maldonado has won his last 2 fights both via decision and showcased his solid technical boxing skill and relentless body punches. Villante bounced back from a decision loss to Ovince St. Preux in his UFC debut and defeated Cody Donovan via TKO in his last fight. On the feet Maldonado will have the advantage with his boxing and solid chin, but Villante is no stranger to a slug fest. Villante has the better wrestling and grappling, but he struggles sometimes to put a solid wrestling attack together and gets caught up in the striking battles. Villante will fight smart, get takedowns and try to control Maldonado on the ground rather than trade strikes. Wrong - Maldonado via U. decision

155 lbs. – Leonardo Santos (1-0 UFC) vs. Norman Parke (3-0 UFC) - Parke via decision
Santos won TUF Brazil 2 in his UFC debut and showed off his slick submission skills. Parke was also a winner of another TUF season and has continued his undefeated streak inside the octagon against quality opponents. On the feet Parke should have the advantage with his solid technical striking and defense, but Santos will be throwing hard kicks. On the ground Santos will have the advantage with his BJJ, but Parke has a strong grappling game and should be able to defend takedowns or stay out of submission trouble. Parke will use his technical striking, grappling defense and the odd takedown to secure a decision win. Fight declared a draw

185 lbs. – Cezar Ferreira (3-0 UFC) vs. C.B. Dollaway (7-5 UFC) - Ferreira via TKO
Ferreira defeated Daniel Sarafian via split decision in his last fight and continued his strong run inside the octagon. Dollaway lost a back and forth battle to Tim Boetsch in his last fight, after also winning a split decision over Daniel Sarafian the fight prior. On the feet Ferreira has a ton of KO power and Dollaway has shown a weak chin in the past when tested against a tough striker. Dollaway has a solid wrestling base, but Ferreira is a black belt in BJJ and has the skill to submit Dollaway or scramble back to his feet. Dollaway can win if he fights smart, but Ferreira’s aggressive style should cause Dollaway problems. Wrong - Dollaway via TKO

205 lbs. – #7 Mauricio Rua (6-6 UFC) vs. #8 Dan Henderson (6-5 UFC) - Henderson via decision
Since their 2011 Fight of the Year in which Henderson won via Unanimous decision, Rua has gone 2-2 with mixed performances including a KO of the night over James Te-Huna and a 1st round submission loss to Chael Sonnen. Henderson lost 2 straight split decision over Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans, then lost via TKO to Vitor Belfort. On the feet it will be a similar battle between the power of Henderson and the technique of Rua, but Henderson should do more damage with his power. Rua did a great job of securing takedowns in the first fight, but Henderson seemed to control the grappling before he gassed so he may look to use more wrestling in this fight. Rua could easily win this fight just like the first meeting, but Henderson’s back is against the wall with 3 straight losses and he’ll make sure to keep his job by defeating Rua again. Correct (Henderson via TKO)

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