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UFC Fight Night 40: Brown vs. Silva: Full card predictions

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UFC FN 40 is this Saturday, May 10 at the U.S. Bank Arena in Cincinnati, Ohio. Fight Pass prelims start at 6:30p.m., the next block of prelims air at 8:00p.m., and the main card can be seen at 10:00p.m. The main event will feature a matchup between top ranked Welterweight contenders Matt Brown and Erick Silva. Enjoy the predictions and UFC FN 40 fight card.

Online Prelims: 3-0-0

170 lbs. – Anthony Lapsley (0-1 UFC) vs. Albert Tumenov (0-1 UFC) – Tumenov via TKO
Lapsley is a grappler with good submission skill, but Tumenov is also a very good grappler and should be able to stay out of trouble while landing his hard ground and pound. On the feet Tumenov will have a big advantage and will likely be able to finish Lapsley. Correct plus method

155 lbs. – Justin Salas (2-2 UFC) vs. Ben Wall (0-1 UFC) – Salas via decision
Wall has decent striking, but he’s more comfortable while grappling. Salas has a very solid wrestling base so he should be able to control the takedown battle. On the feet Salas will have an advantage with his power and technique. Correct (Salas via KO)

145 lbs. – Manvel Gamburyan (4-5(1) UFC) vs. #9 Nik Lentz (8-3-1(1) UFC) – Lentz via decision
Lentz is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Chad Mendes. Both men are grapplers, but based in different disciplines (Lentz/wrestling & Gamburyan/judo). Lentz should be able to land more takedowns, but it will be a battle. On the feet it should be fairly even, but expect Lentz to have a slight advantage. Correct plus method

Fox Sports Prelims: 1-3-0

135 lbs. – #4 Eddie Wineland (3-3 UFC) vs. Johnny Eduardo (1-1 UFC) – Wineland via TKO
Eduardo has fast hands and good muay thai technique, but he doesn’t have the same amount of power as Wineland. Wineland’s boxing should be too much for Eduardo, but if not expect Wineland to use his wrestling and ground and pound on Eduado. Wrong - Eduardo via KO

170 lbs. – Yan Cabral (1-0 UFC) vs. Zak Cummings (1-0 UFC) – Cabral via submission
Neither man is much of a striker, so this fight will likely be fought on the ground, as both fighters are more comfortable grappling. Cabral has excellent trip takedowns and likely the better Jiu-Jitsu so expect him to control Cummings and possibly finish with a submission. Wrong - Cummings via U. decision

125 lbs. – Kyoji Horiguchi (1-0 UFC) vs. Darrell Montague (0-1 UFC) – Horiguchi via TKO
Horiguchi is making his Flyweight debut after earning a TKO victory over Dustin Pague at Bantamweight. Montague will likely try to get this fight to the ground, but Horiguchi should show strong takedown defense. Expect Horiguchi to keep this fight standing long enough to earn his second TKO victory. Correct (Horiguchi via U. decision)

185 lbs. – Ed Herman (8-7(1) UFC) vs. Rafael Natal (5-3-1 UFC) – Natal via decision
Herman has good striking and solid BJJ, but his lack of speed and wrestling continue to halt his efforts. Natal will use his kicks and speed to get the better of the striking, but his chin is certainly questionable. Natal should be able to get takedowns and work from top control, but likely not finish. Wrong - Herman via U. decision

Main Card: 4-2-0 Total MMA Predictions: 508-280-3 = 64%

125 lbs. – #10 Chris Cariaso (6-3 UFC) vs. Louis Smolka (1-0 UFC) - Smolka via decision
Cariaso has gone 3-2 since moving to Flyweight, winning his last 2 fights earning a TKO and a unanimous decision against tough fighters. Smolka won his UFC debut back in January via unanimous decision with very effective striking. On the feet Smolka will have a huge 5 inch height and 3.5 inch reach advantage to take advantage of, but Cariaso is well known for his solid striking technique so it will be a back and forth battle. Smolka gave up several takedowns in his UFC debut, while Cariaso is notorious for poor takedown defense, so either man could steal this fight but Smolka’s size should play a factor in getting takedowns. Cariaso could easily win this fight, but Smolka should do enough on the feet while spending some time in top control. Wrong - Cariaso via S. decision

265 lbs. – Soa Palelei (2-0 UFC) vs. Ruan Potts (0-0 UFC) - Palelei via TKO
Palelei has won both his UFC fights via TKO/KO and continued his now 10 fight win streak. Potts is making his UFC debut after building an 8-1 (4 TKO’s & 4 Submissions) pro record and only losing via decision to a man he’s submitted twice. On the feet Palelei will have a massive advantage with his powerful punches, and Potts is not comfortable striking so expect Palelei to search for the KO. On the ground Potts should have the advantage with his submission technique, but Palelei will be the stronger man and if he can continue the strong takedown defense he’s shown thus far he should be able to force Potts to strike with him. Potts could pull out a slick submission if Palelei gets sloppy or tired, but Palelei is the better fighter and will show it on fight night. Correct plus method

170 lbs. – Neil Magny (2-2 UFC) vs. Tim Means (2-2 UFC) - Magny via decision
Magny bounced back from 2 straight losses and won a unanimous decision in his last fight. Means was let go from the UFC after his loss to Danny Castillo, but he also rebounded with 2 straight finishes outside the UFC and is now a replacement for William Macario. On the feet it will be a battle between the long reach of Magny and the power of Means, so expect both men to be aggressive with their boxing. On the ground neither fighter is very intimidating, but Magny has shown better wrestling skill than Means has, so expect Magny to use his grappling. Magny will use his speed and reach to stick and move while securing a takedown or two and earn a decision. Correct plus method

155 lbs. – Erik Koch (3-2 UFC) vs. Daron Cruickshank (4-2 UFC) - Koch via decision
Koch will be fighting at Lightweight for the second time after defeating Rafaello Oliveira via TKO in February. Cruickshank rebounded from a submission loss and defeated the tough wrestler Mike Rio via TKO in January. On the feet both man seem to be evenly matched as far as speed, power, technique and are fairly close in height/reach, but Koch showed very crisp striking in his last fight so expect him to land more strikes. Cruickshank has the better wrestling base, but he rarely uses it so Koch may be able to catch Cruickshank with some trip takedowns of his own. Cruickshank has the tools to win this fight, but Koch seems to be finally fulfilling his potential. Wrong - Cruickshank via TKO

185 lbs. – #12 Costas Philippou (5-3 UFC) vs. Lorenz Larkin (1-2 UFC) - Philippou via decision
Philippou has struggled in his last 2 fights losing via decision to Francis Carmont and most recently a TKO to Luke Rockhold, but he seemed to have a hard time with the height/reach disadvantage which he won’t have to deal with against Larkin. Larkin lost his last fight to Brad Tavares via unanimous decision, but has impressed many thus far in the UFC career with very effective striking. On the feet it should be very explosive between the powerful boxing of Philippou and the dynamic striking of Larkin. Larkin will be able to land his kicks and plenty of punches, but the power of Philippou may prove to be the difference. On the ground Philippou will have the advantage as he’ll also be the stronger man and be able to control the takedown battle. Philippou should bounce back from his last 2 fights and win a hard fought battle against Larkin or possibly lock in a submission. Correct (Philippou via KO)

170 lbs. – #7 Matt Brown (11-5 UFC) vs. #14 Erick Silva (4-3 UFC) - Brown via TKO
Brown continued his hot streak by winning KO of the night against Mike Pyle in his last fight moving to 6 straight wins (5 TKO/KO’s). Silva bounced back from a KO loss at the hands of Dong-Hyun Kim and defeated UFC newcomer Takenori Sato via 1st round TKO in his last fight. On the feet expect Brown’s hard hitting technique and aggressive style to give Silva plenty of problems. Silva is much wilder in his technique, but he can be very effective with his speed and power. On the ground both men have excellent grappling so it should be a back and forth battle, but expect this fight to stay standing as both are natural strikers. Silva’s chin was exposed in his fight with Kim, and Brown should also be able to find the sweet spot. Correct plus method

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