UFC 158 takes place on Saturday night from Montreal, with the much hyped and anticipated matchup of Georges St. Pierre and Nick Diaz for the welterweight title. Good luck. Even beyond the main event, the 170 lb. division is featured prominently on the card. In what is probably a fight to be next in line for the title, Carlos Condit and Johny Hendricks will square off. The card also has a nice matchup between Jake Ellenberger and Nate Marquardt. Good luck.
PRELIMS (Facebook)
Reuben Duran (-140) vs. George Roop (+110)
Duran was crushed by Hugo "Wolverine" Viana in his last matchup. Roop puts together stinkers on occasion, but is very capable of a brutal finish. I will go with the guy who has proven more, even though it isn't much more, in the UFC. ROOP DEF. DURAN BY TKO (RD 2)
TJ Dillashaw (-700) vs. Issei Tamura (+450)
Probably the most lopsided matchup on the card, Dillashaw has proven to land takedowns at will and punish from the top. Tamura, primarily a striker, won't have much of a chance at a knockout here. Dillashaw finishes early. DILLASHAW DEF. TAMURA BY TKO (RD 1)
Rick Story (-400) vs. Quinn Mulhern (+300)
People who saw Story get subbed by Demian Maia will be quick to point out that Mulhern is also a BJJ black belt, and may expect the same thing. I am looking back to when Mulhern fought Jason High, and see Story implementing a similar game plan. I don't see much value with this number, but still see Story taking care of business in this one. STORY DEF. MULHERN BY DECISION
PRELIMS (FX)
Daron Cruickshank (-125) vs. John Makdessi (-105)
On paper, this is the most exciting fight on the undercard. Two strikers who will be more than willing to trade. Cruickshank has a 4 inch reach advantage over Makdessi, which should be the difference. I won't be betting this fight, just watching and hoping for fireworks. CRUICKSHANK DEF. MAKDESSI BY TKO (RD 2)
Jordan Mein (-300) vs. Dan Miller (+220)
I am thrilled to see the UFC debut of Jordan Mein, who is one of the most exciting young fighters out there. He has an extensive striking game, but will have to avoid the takedown attempts of Dan Miller. Maybe Miller can take him down and grind it out, but I lean toward the younger prospect making a statement in his first shot on the big stage. MEIN DEF. MILLER BY KO (RD 3)
Darren Elkins (-230) vs. Antonio Carvalho (+180)
Elkins has won 4 straight fights at 145 since losing to Charles Oliveira, and is getting close to "contender" status. Carvalho has also been impressive, winning two straight, including one over Houston's Daniel Pineda. Carvalho has developed a nice striking game to go with his jiu-jitsu, but Elkins wrestling will neutralize him in this one. ELKINS DEF. CARVALHO BY DECISION
Patrick Cote (-180) vs. Bobby Voelker (+150)
Cote has looked miserable since coming back to the UFC, being dominated by Cung Le before winning via DQ against Alessio Sakara. In that fight he was overwhelmed before Sakara landed punches to the back of the head. Voelker was 4-1 on the Strikeforce Challengers circuit, taking two from his trilogy with Roger Bowling. He is out to prove he is ready for the big time, and has a matchup that could make his UFC debut a success. VOELKER DEF. COTE BY DECISION
MAIN CARD (PPV)
Mike Ricci (-350) vs. Colin Fletcher (+250)
This is a funny matchup to me, just because of the way these guys look. Ricci could be an accountant, and Fletcher looks like he should be operating the tilt-a-whirl at the carnival. Ricci will be at a size disadvantage, but that was the case when he fought on the 170 lb. season of The Ultimate Fighter. Both guys were runners up on their respective seasons of the reality show, and both were cleanly outwrestled in the finale. Ricci is a little more complete, and will finish late. RICCI DEF. FLETCHER BY SUBMISSION (RD 3)
Nick Ring (-120) vs. Chris Camozzi (-110)
This is an interesting middleweight bout between two guys who are looking to work their way up onto the contender tier. Camozzi may have the slightest edge on their feet, but Ring has a significant advantage on the mat. He is the superior wrestler and a brown belt in jiu-jitsu. Ring will trade with Camozzi, and if it gets hairy, will take the fight to the ground, where he will grind out a decision. RING DEF. CAMOZZI BY DECISION
Jake Ellenberger (-160) vs. Nate Marquardt (+130)
Nate Marquardt had been very impressive since dropping down to 170 lbs., but was handled by Tarec Saffiedine in a fight where he had no answers for the barrage of leg kicks from the Belgian striker. Ellenberger won't look to hit the leg too often, and Marquardt is the more complete striker. Marquardt is not an especially good defensive wrestler, and Ellenberger should go back to his roots and control this fight on the mat. ELLENBERGER DEF. MARQUARDT BY DECISION
Johny Hendricks (-135) vs. Carlos Condit (+105)
Johny Hendricks thought he had done enough to warrant a title shot after beating Martin Kampmann and Jon Fitch. Sadly for him, St. Pierre hand-picked Nick Diaz to be his next opponent. Condit was controlled by GSP in their title fight, but did have a moment in the 3rd where he floored the champ with a head kick. Condit won't be intimidated by the power of Hendricks, and is obviously a dangerous striker in his own right. The intriguing aspect of this matchup is the grappling. Hendricks is the superior wrestler, but Condit is extremely dangerous off his back. I think there are some good exchanges on the feet and on the ground. In the end, while Hendricks maybe should have been the top contender, Condit proves to be the 2nd best welterweight in the world. CONDIT DEF. HENDRICKS BY DECISION
MAIN EVENT
WELTERWEIGHT TITLE BOUT
Georges St. Pierre (-500) vs. Nick Diaz (+350)
This is the fight that GSP has been wanting. Nick Diaz has done everything he can to disrespect the champion, from not showing up to scheduled appearances to accusing the champion of steroid use. All that is over now, and it boils down to the actual fight. Diaz is a very complete fighter. He is a great striker with a stout chin, though he lacks real knockout power. He is also a Cesar Gracie black belt. To me the difference for GSP will be his ability to dictate where the fight takes place. He is the stronger fighter, physically, and will be able to hold Diaz down if he needs to. GSP keeps great posture during ground and pound, meaning it will be hard to catch him in a miracle submission. I will take the champ via ground and pound late in the fight. ST. PIERRE DEF. DIAZ BY TKO (RD 4)
SAFEST PICKS: DILLASHAW, ELKINS, STORY, VOELKER
RISKIEST PICKS: CONDIT, ROOP, ELLENBERGER, RICCI
CONSERVATIVE PARLAY: RING, ELKINS, STORY, DILLASHAW- PAYS 5/2
MODERATE PARLAY: VOELKER, ST. PIERRE, DILLASHAW, ELKINS- PAYS 4/1
AGGRESSIVE PARLAY: CONDIT, RING, VOELKER, ROOP- PAYS 18/1
LAST CARD: 6-5
2013 RECORD: 40-27
2012 RECORD: 216-110 (66%)
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