UFC 157 is finally upon us, and might be the most anticipated card by the national media since UFC 100, if not ever. Not many debuting UFC fighters can push they likes of Dan Henderson, Lyoto Machida, Josh Koscheck and Urijah Faber down the card, but Ronda Rousey has done just that. The first ever UFC women's champion will defend her title against Liz Carmouche. Here is a breakdown of the card for betting purposes. Good luck.
PRELIMS (Facebook)
Yuri Villefort (-115) vs. Nah-Shon Burrell (-115)
Interesting fight between a couple of guys making their UFC debut. Villefort, fighting out of the Blackzilians camp, is a strong grappler with a good chin. His lone loss came via split decision in Strikeforce back in May. Burrell is a solid striker and an outstanding athlete, but will likely find himself smothered and frustrated by Villefort. VILLEFORT DEF. BURRELL BY DECISION
Neil Magny (-160) vs. Jon Manley (+130)
Magny and Manley were the losing semi-finalists from TUF 16. Magny, from team Carwin, was knocked out in by Mike Ricci while Team Carwin's Manley lost a decision to Colton Smith. Manley is a grinder with a good submission game, and I think he takes a close one here. MANLEY DEF. MAGNY BY DECISION
Brock Jardine (-160) vs. Kenny Robertson (+130)
Both fighters have been dominated by better wrestlers in their UFC careers to this point (Mike Pierce, Rick Story, Aaron Simpson). This should be more of a stand-up fight and it could actually be very entertaining. Robertson seems a little more complete to me, and I think he holds out for a decision win. ROBERTSON DEF. JARDINE BY DECISION
PRELIMS (FX)
Carlos Fodor (-155) vs. Sam Stout (+125)
Let me preface this pick by saying I think I have maybe been right about a Sam Stout pick 2 or 3 times in my life. He wins when I think he can't and loses right when I start believing in him. Fodor is a solid striker with a good grappling background. I will lay the curse on him. FODOR DEF. STOUT BY DECISION
Michael Chiesa (-200) vs. Anton Kuivanen (+160)
This should be a really interesting fight, with the undefeated Chiesa taking on an exciting striker in Kuivanen. Chiesa looked good in winning The Ultimate Fighter 15, but this will be his first test against an experienced UFC caliber fighter. Kuivanen just got his first promotional win against Mitch Clarke, and will look to parlay that into the biggest win of his career. KUIVANEN DEF. CHIESA BY TKO (RD 1)
Dennis Bermudez (-450) vs. Matt Grice (+325)
Two strong wrestlers go at it here, but not guys who will be willing to lay and pray. Bermudez is a pretty good striker as well, and I think he probably has the better wrestling chops. Look for him to put Grice down and pound him all the way out of the UFC. BERMUDEZ DEF. GRICE BY TKO (RD 3)
Brendan Schaub (-155) vs. Lavar Johnson (+125)
While it may be simple logic to see that Brendan Schaub has been knocked out in two straight fights, and is going up against a knockout artist, it really isn't that cut and dry. Schaub knows he is up against the wall, and will know it isn't in his best interest to try and stand with Johnson. Look for him to break out his wrestling and try to take advantage of Johnson on the mat. If he can avoid the early barrage by Johnson, he should find his hand raised. SCHAUB DEF. JOHNSON BY SUBMISSION (RD 2)
MAIN CARD (PPV)
Court McGee (-300) vs. Josh Neer (+220)
In an age where the UFC just gave Jon Fitch and Jacob Volkmann their walking papers, no fighter can afford a 3 fight losing streak. Both these fighters are facing their 3rd straight loss. McGee has lost a couple of tough decisions, while Neer has been finished in the first round both times. Neer is a finisher, but has way too many holes in his game. This is a perfect "get-right" fight for McGee, who gets a submission finish. MCGEE DEF. NEER BY SUBMISSION (RD 2)
Josh Koscheck (-450) vs. Robbie Lawler (+325)
Josh Koscheck has been out of action for about a year, and Robbie Lawler makes the move over from Strikeforce. Lawler, even in his advanced age, is one of the most exciting fighters out there and he could easily make this a spectacular finish. Koscheck is still Koscheck though, and he will look to hold Lawler down and frustrate him. Kos went to a decision with the heavy handed Johny Hendricks in his last fight, and if he can survive that, he will survive the bombs that Lawler throws and walk away with a decision win. KOSCHECK DEF. LAWLWER BY DECISION
Urijah Faber (-400) vs. Ivan Menjivar (+300)
Ivan Menjivar is truly one of the most underrated guys in the lower weight classes in the UFC, taking on the man who has been the face of the under-155 guys from the beginning in Urijah Faber. The two have met before, with Menjivar being disqualified from their bout in 2006 for an illegal kick. Faber hasn't looked great against Dominick Cruz and Renan Barao in title fights, but has run through everyone else. As good as I think Menjivar is, Faber's aggressive style will be too much for him. FABER DEF. BY DECISION
Lyoto Machida (-240) vs. Dan Henderson (+190)
This fight would headline almost any other event. Dana White announced that Lyoto Machida and Dan Henderson would be fighting for a shot at the Jon Jones-Chael Sonnen winner for the 205 lb. title. Henderson has already lost one shot when he got injured, and it seems hard for me to believe he will let Lyoto take this one from him. Machida is hard to hit, but Hendo is hard to knock out. Look for Dan to swing for the fences and work his way inside on Machida, something not many have been able to do. HENDERSON DEF. MACHIDA BY TKO (RD 2)
MAIN EVENT
WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT TITLE BOUT
Ronda Rousey (-1400) vs. Liz Carmouche (+175)
Let me start off by saying that Liz Carmouche isn't rubbish. She just isn't in the same class as Rousey. Carmouche fought well against Marlos Coenen before losing late via submission. Carmouche is tough, and a grinder, but Rousey is just a little bit better than Liz at everything. The real question is, can Carmouche make it out of the first round. I say the answer is no. Rousey finishes her 7th straight opponent with an arm bar. ROUSEY DEF. CARMOUCHE BY SUBMISSION (RD 1)
SAFEST PICKS: ROUSEY, FABER, BERMUDEZ, KOSCHECK
RISKIEST PICKS: HENDERSON, FODOR, KUIVANEN, MANLEY
CONSERVATIVE PARLAY: ROUSEY, FABER, BERMUDEZ, MCGEE- PAYS 3/2
MODERATE PARLAY: BERUMUDEZ, FABER, SCHAUB, VILLEFORT- PAYS 7/2
AGGRESSIVE PARLAY: MCGEE, ROBERTSON, FODOR, VILLEFORT- PAYS 8/1
LAST CARD: 10-2
2013 RECORD: 28-16
2012 RECORD: 216-110 (66%)
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