UFC 156 is the first pay-per view card of 2013, and Dana White has once again put together a great "Super Saturday" card. We have the featherweight title being contested for the first time in over a year, as well as the returns of Alistair Overeem and Rashad Evans. Here is a breakdown of the card for betting purposes. Good luck.
PRELIMS (Facebook)
Chico Camus (-165) vs. Dustin Kimura (+135)
Kimura is a submission expert, having run his record to 9-0 with 6 tap out finishes. Camus won't be finished easily though. He has a stifling wrestling game and enough ground and pound to keep himself out of too much trouble. CAMUS DEF. KIMURA BY DECISION
Francisco Rivera (-350) vs. Edwin Figueroa (+250)
Figueroa is a guy who has impressed me much more in his UFC loss (a decision to Michael McDonald) than his notable UFC win (a split decision over Alex Caceres where Caceres was twice deducted for groin shots). Rivera is a heavy hitter, and if Figueroa can't come up with more offense than getting kicked in the junk, he doesn't stand much of a chance. RIVERA DEF. FIGUEROA BY TKO (RD 2)
PRELIMS (FX)
Yves Edwards (-280) vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg (+210)
Yves Edwards keeps on rolling. 4-2 in this latest UFC run, the 36 year old Thug-Jitsu master has found a way to defy age. His opponent, Isaac Vallie-Flagg is a Jackson MMA product making his first appearance in the UFC. He is coming off back to back split decision wins over JZ Cavalcante and Brian Melancon (don't get me started on my feelings about the latter) and is definitely a tough guy who will test Yves. The knockout power of Edwards will be too much, and I think he gets a stoppage in the middle round. EDWARDS DEF. VALLIE-FLAGG BY TKO (RD 2)
Jacob Volkmann (-400) vs. Bobby Green (+300)
Another guy making his UFC debut, Bobby Green has solid striking and can make it interesting if he can keep the fight standing. Jacob Volkmann never makes it easy to do that though. He is a top level wrestler, and should grind out a victory over the tough Green. VOLKMANN DEF. GREEN BY DECISION
Tyron Woodley (-135) vs. Jay Hieron (+105)
I see this as one of the better value plays on the card. When this matchup was announced I figured Woodley would be around -200. This number is pleasantly surprising. The luster came off T-Wood a little after his thrashing at the hands of Nate Marquardt, but he is still one of the fastest and best wrestlers in the sport. His opponent, Jay Hieron also wants to rely on his wrestling, which won't work here. He may be forced into a game he is uncomfortable with. I see Woodley taking an easy decision. WOODLEY DEF. HIERON BY DECISION
Gleison Tibau (-120) vs. Evan Dunham (-110)
This is one of the better match-ups on the card. We have a dominating wrestler in Gleison Tibau against a very strong striker with a very good ground game. Tibau obviously wants to put it on the ground, but it will be tough for him to close the distance against the all around solid Dunham. I expect Dunham to hurt Tibau coming in, and Dunham to finish the job late. DUNHAM DEF. TIBAU BY TKO (RD 3)
MAIN CARD (PPV)
Joseph Benavidez (-260) vs. Ian McCall (+200)
This is a tough fight for me to pick. Benavidez is going to have a speed advantage, and it will be tough for McCall to get the fight to the ground. McCall is more than willing to trade though, and the fact that this will be a 3-round fight plays to his advantage. In a fight I consider to be a toss-up, I will take "Uncle Creepy" getting the big number. MCCALL DEF. BENAVIDEZ BY DECISION
Jon Fitch (-220) vs. Demian Maia (+175)
Another really interesting fight will take pit a great wrestler against a submission expert. Both guys have improved, but still questionable striking. To me this will come down to who ends up on top. With Maia being good off his back, he has a slight advantage there, but Fitch has a top game with very few holes in it. Fitch is not easy to finish, and while Maia still looks like he can be a force at 170, this is not the type of fight that gets you closer to a title shot. Fitch grinds out a tough one here. FITCH DEF. MAIA BY DECISION
Alistair Overeem (-350) vs. Antonio Silva (+250)
First of all, I know everyone thinks this is the most sure fire pick on the card. Overeem is a win away from getting a shot at the heavyweight title, and given what he has done the last few years, it is well deserved. That said, if Silva can grab a hold of Overeem and drag him down, Overeem could be in trouble. Silva on top of Overeem is a recipe for an upset. Not saying it WILL happen, but it is something to be wary of. I expect Overeem to finish Silva with strikes in the 2nd, but I won't be heavy on this one. OVEREEM DEF. SILVA BY TKO (RD 2)
Rashad Evans (-500) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+350)
Rashad Evans is coming off a sound ass-whipping at the hands of Jon Jones. While he couldn't take much positive out of that, he is still one of the best 205's in the world. Nogueira is coming off a win against a retiring Tito Ortiz, but that is not enough to erase the memories of him being dominated by the wrestling of Ryan Bader and Phil Davis. Evans is in that same class as far as wrestling. The only concern would be Evans being overly confident in his standup, where he has a distinct disadvantage, but I think Evans fights smart and wins a dominating decision. EVANS DEF. NOGUEIRA BY DECISION
MAIN EVENT
FEATHERWEIGHT TITLE BOUT
Jose Aldo (-220) vs. Frank Edgar (+175)
With all the talk of "super fights" between Georges St. Pierre-Anderson Silva-Jon Jones, we actually have one that is coming to fruition. Sure, Frank may not be the lightweight title-holder (despite it being my opinion that he beat Benson Henderson in their last fight), but Edgar dropping down to 145 to take on the champion is still a marquee matchup. Aldo is always dangerous, of course, but Edgar is one of the best pure boxers in MMA. While he wasn't a huge knockout threat at 155 lbs., that may be different at 145. Edgar is a notoriously slow starter, which could be his undoing. Aldo is a killer, and if he hurts you early he will finish. I actually think that will be the case here. If Edgar can make it into the later rounds, he has a shot at a decision, but I think Aldo goes for the finish early and gets it. ALDO DEF. EDGAR BY TKO (RD 2)
SAFEST PICKS: EVANS, VOLKMANN, RIVERA, EDWARDS
RISKIEST PICKS: ALDO, MCCALL, DUNHAM, CAMUS
CONSERVATIVE PARLAY: EVANS, VOLKMANN, EDWARDS, OVEREEM- PAYS 2/1
MODERATE PARLAY: VOLKMANN, ALDO, EDWARDS, WOODLEY- PAYS 7/2
AGGRESSIVE PARLAY: WOODLEY, ALDO, DUNHAM, FITCH- PAYS 6/1
LAST CARD: 8-3
2013 RECORD: 13-8
2012 RECORD: 216-110 (66%)
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