TUF 13 Coach Junior Dos Santos will face Shane Carwin instead of fellow TUF 13 Coach and former UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar in the main event of UFC 131 at the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, June 11 due to Lesnar's recurred health issues with diverticulitis.
While Carwin hopes to get back in contender status after losing a title bout against Lesnar at UFC 116 almost a year ago, Dos Santos is still waiting for his well-deserved title shot against current UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velazquez.
Interestingly, Carwin and Dos Santos both bring an almost-perfect fight record of 12-1 to this match. Dos Santos may benefit from the fact that the only blemish on his fight record occured early on in his career before he signed with the Ultimate Fighting Championship in 2008. As a result, he is coming off a 7-bout win streak including six wins in the UFC in the last three years.
Carwin, on the other hand, had one year to recover from his very first pro MMA career-loss against Lesnar and now has to prove his bounce-back ability. Naturally, his momentum has suffered a serious damper since his glory days when he was hailed as undefeated contender and serious threat to Lesnar.
Carwin's biggest liability might be his cardio, however, as evident in his second-round loss to Lesnar after completely dominating the former champion in the first round and winning all his other career fights in the first round as well. Although Dos Santos obviously also likes to finish his fights quickly with seven first-round wins on his record, he has proven his stamina with a third-round submisison defeat of Mirko Filipovic at UFC 103 - Franklin vs. Belfort and more recently with a decision-win against Roy Nelson at UFC 117 - Silva vs. Sonnen. As a result, the odds are clearly in Dos Santos' favor as soon as the bout goes past the first round unless Carwin has done some serious soul-searching and intense cardio drills.
When it comes to skill sets, Dos Santos and Carwin are both heavy hitters who can close the deal with a submission if it presents itself on a silver platter. On the other side of the coin, both seem to have a blind spot on the ground as both have suffered career losses via submission which ultimately, levels the playing- and winning-field on the ground.
Clearly, the same goes for their stand-up game-- expect fireworks with a side of takedowns. Since neither fighter has ever been knocked out they will no doubt deliver an all-out slug fest. Carwin might draw on his wrestling background and sprinkle in takedowns to score points, while Dos Santos might try to put his grappling skills to good use with a submission as final goal.
In light of the similarities in the fighters' experience and skill sets it looks like cardio will play a crucial role in the outcome of this bout. Dos Santos has proven to be a brilliant strategist in his role as TUF 13 coach which leads to the conclusion that he might try to push Carwin past the first round to wear him out and close the deal once he is gassed. Since Carwin is only known for overwhelming his opponents with brute force he will most likely try to do just that with Dos Santos, who can no doubt outwit and outlast him.
Predicted winner: Dos Santos via submission in round two.
The main card will air live on PPV at 9 p.m ET. Two prelims will be broadcast on Spike TV at 8 p.m. after the online streaming of the first five preliminary bouts on Facebook and for the first time on Youtube.
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