UFC 129: St. Pierre vs. Shields carries special significance for Canadian mixed martial arts fans since this is the first-ever UFC fight card to take place in Toronto since the sport was legalized in Ontario last August.
On a larger scale, this card's main event can be regarded as the ultimate test of the UFC's perceived superiority over other MMA promotions with the title bout between long-time reigning UFC Welterweight Champion Georges “Rush” St. Pierre and former Strikeforce and Elite XC Middleweight Champion Jake Shields.
One should not forget, however, that Shields vacated his Strikeforce title voluntarily last June after defeating UFC veteran Dan Henderson in quite convincing fashion during a Strikeforce title bout. He then even dropped a weight class in order to get a shot at St. Pierre, but had to prove himself in his UFC debut against Martin Kampman first. After his subsequent split-decision win over Kampman UFC President Dana White finally gave him what he really wanted: a shot at the much coveted UFC welterweight title, which Shields sees as the pinnacle of his MMA career. The only man standing in his way is St. Pierre, who is more affectionaly known as GSP by his fans.
While Shields has been biding his time in the shadows for the last six months, St. Pierre kept busy with another successful title defense against Josh Koscheck last December.
Shields and GSP have both been enjoying impressively long win streaks which Shields trumps with quantity (15 wins) over GSP's quality (8 wins) since the UFC arguably served the champion a higher caliber of opponents.
Nevertheless, Shields has without a doubt been one of the most underrated professional MMA fighters to date and more often than not surprised with his dominance over opponents like Henderson, Paul Daley and Robbie Lawler.
Quite to the contrary, GSP has been touted as one of the most well-rounded and talented fighters although his more recent performances against Hardy, Koscheck and Thiago Alves resulted in decisions that left fans questioning his drive. While GSP defended his style as fighting smart by scoring points with take downs and hold downs that would make him shine in any wrestling match, MMA fans were simply bored to tears due to the lack of action. Watching a guy being pinned to the mat for five rounds hardly constitutes entertainment.
In spite of all the criticism GSP received from fans, he set an example with his fighting style that many other MMA fighters have been trying to emulate. UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar, for example, defeated BJ Penn twice by taking a page from GSP's style book, and Shields outwitted wrestling ace, Henderson, in the very same fashion.
In fact, Shields and GSP seem to be two peas in a pod when it comes to fighting style and mentality, which makes it incredibly difficult to predict the outcome of this title bout. Since neither fighter has shown any weaknesses in their fight games and both bring a ton of momentum to the octagon, it will basically come down to who can impose his will first and force the other guy to make a mistake. If both stick to their usual game plans of outscoring the opponent the bout will no doubt result in a decision.
Yet, neither fighter is invincible as both have suffered losses in their fighting careers. Shields can play his extensive experience and superior jiu jitsu skills as ace to outwit GSP on the ground, just like Matt Hughes did when he caught GSP in an arm bar at UFC 50 in October 2004.
GSP, on the other hand, will be entering dangerous territory if he opts for a ground game since Shields has never been submitted. His best option would, in fact, be to stay on his feet and trade punches until the bell rings, or until he lands a lucky shot.
Granted, both fighters have come a long way and evolved their skills exponentially, which makes it almost futile to expect a repetition of past mistakes. But stats do determine probabilities and as such Shields has a greater chance to dominate and submit GSP on the ground, while GSP's best option is no doubt a slug-fest in stand up.
Predicted winner: Shields via decision.
Two UFC 129 undercard bouts will air for free on Spike at 8 p.m. ET with five additional undercard bouts streaming for free on Facebook at 6 p.m. ET. The UFC 129 main card will be broadcast live on PPV at 9 p.m. ET.
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