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UFC 118 analysis and predictions: Don't count the big bad black guy out

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So it's been written. It's UFC versus Boxing. The headliner may be BJ Penn versus Frankie Edgar 2 but the attraction that has captured most people's interest for UFC 118 is the match-up between former UFC heavyweight champion Randy Couture and former boxing heavyweight champion James Toney.

Tip your hats to Dana White because this move to allow Toney to fight in the UFC is sheer genius. Now you got even some of boxing's biggest die-hard purists and MMA critics intrigued enough to compel them to watch the sport live for the first time in their lives. Take for example our boxing guru up in New York Michael Marley who once wrote that the UFC is the "Superbowl for idiots". Who would've thought Mr. Marley would find his way to interviewing BJ Penn?!

Couture vs. Toney

This is definitely must-see TV and despite Couture having home-court advantage, don't quite count the big bad black guy Toney out. Yes, that's how they've marketed this show to be. It's the sport people like boxing promoter Bob Arum describes as the sport for skinheads and beer drinkers. Think about NASCAR with 4 oz gloves. If that is so, then Toney definitely fits the bill of the outsider- the big black villain for that matter- who audaciously comes into UFC territory thinking he would just dominate the competition. Expect the loudest boos you've ever heard in a UFC event ever.

Be it as it may, Toney is a pro and a Hall of Fame boxer. Don't expect the man to just come in as if he was some pompous yet clueless clown without any knowledge of what he's doing. Toney trained his butt off for this challenge he got himself into and has been working out with the likes of King Mo Lawal and to get himself up to speed with MMA. This is a world class athlete with one punch knockout power which might translate into one punch amnesia damage to Couture if it connects. And don't expect the hefty and strong Toney to be taken down easily as well.

Couture needs to be patient and mix up his attacks. He can't just come in shooting for a takedown. He needs to set up his attack, mix up leg kicks and avoid a standing up with Toney at all cost. Personally I'd go for a single leg takedown first or shoot real low and have the option of transitioning to his guard if Toney manages to sprawl. But as Mike Tyson said best, "everybody has a game plan until they get hit," and Couture's chin has been glassy as of late. Oddsmakers have this at 6-1 for Couture but I'm giving Toney a 40% chance of winning. I predict Couture winning by TKO via ground and pound but do not discount a jaw-dropping KO upset for Toney- I am actually pulling for it. 

Prediction: Couture by TKO in round 2.

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Edgar vs. Penn 2

Several people, including this scribe, were shocked when Edgar upset Penn in their first runaround in a tightly contested 5-round barn burner. Penn didn't look good in Abu Dhabi and the knock on Penn has always been about his conditioning. Whether he overlooked Edgar or it was a lack of motivation or even reports that he had some issues with staph, none of those matter now and I believe Penn will be back with a vengeance this Saturday. Only thing I hope for is a good enough fight for us to want to see this again as a trilogy is likely if Penn goes ahead and reclaims his belt. Am I writing Edgar completely out? Not at all. Edgar is a brilliant wrestler and a well-rounded fighter. He showed that he has what it takes to hang with Penn the first time around but this time around though, I simply think it wouldn't be enough.

Prediction: Penn by submission in round 4.


Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

The winner of this fight will most likely challenge the winner of the main event. Florian is coming off impressive victories against Takanori Gomi and Clay Guida after his humbling loss to Penn in UFC 101. Florian is determined and should prove to be too skilled and diverse for the highly-motivated Maynard who is finally getting a much-deserved break. A win by Maynard and Penn would set up a great student-teacher match-up so to speak as Maynard was Penn's first choice when he coached The Ultimate Fighter Show's fight season. 

Prediction: Florian by unanimous decision.


Other picks:

Nate Diaz over Marcus Davis.

Demian Maia over Mario Miranda.

Joe Lauzon over Gabe Reudiger.

Nik Lentz over Andre Winner.

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Check out these UFC® 118 predictions from other MMA Examiners:

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, Indianapolis MMA Examiner

Dennis Guillermo has been following the local Indiana MMA scene for several years now. From the good old shows at 8 Seconds Saloon to the bigger productions such as MMA Big Show, ICF and ECF, he's watched the sport grow from the grassroots level and witness it flourish to what it is today -- one...

Comments

  • Hello Garci 1 year ago

    Toney has a 'hail mary' chance just like anyone else. Kimo beat up on Ray Mercer but Mercer knocked out former UFC heavyweight chump Tim Sylvia with a lucky punch.

    Regardless, Li'l Ape wants a few inflatable dolls from #1floydfan

  • dencio 1 year ago

    MMA is entirely different from boxing. Couture by submission or KO

  • Don Rodel 1 year ago

    It's toney by KO in 1

  • bords 1 year ago

    kimbo vs calderon in boxing

  • Kid Dynamite 1 year ago

    Joe Louis was the 1st to make this quote "Everyone's got a plan until they get hit." Not Mike Tyson. Tyson only made is own version of this quote.

  • jitro 1 year ago

    lol thats a professional boxer for you. now he will not wear those gloves. toney might break bones of couture....

    Toney by TKO round 1.

  • boxing fan 1 year ago

    Professional boxers are usually quicker in reacting incoming blows than UFC fighters. UFC relies much in 'touch' and 'kick' to win. As a good boxer, Toney can see incoming punches and kicks with ease. Toney has a good chance to win by way of knockout.

  • Anonymous 1 year ago

    You boys are fools thinking Toney has a chance. If Randy is dumb enough to stand and box then he deserves to get KOd. But Randy will take Toney down like he's a little girl. There's a punchers chance sure but not when he's on his back in the first 10 seconds of the fight. The is no comparison with what Toney is going to be handed Sat. night because he has never delt with a wrestler of Coutures caliber. Randy wins in 30 seconds if not quicker !!!!

  • boxingfan 1 year ago

    toney should connect real hard early coz if not couture would wear him out with a ufc kind of fight.
    toney by k.o.......hope so.

  • Mr. HYDE 1 year ago

    Anybody who has a knock out punch at this weight division always has a chance of winning any kind of fight, may it be in MMA or boxing, all it would take is one punch. There are 2 dilemmas for Toney one is that there are only 3 or 4 rounds in an MMA bout, he has to make the best of it, 2nd, Randy has a lot of weapons in his arsenal, I hope Toney trained for those other options too, it would make some difference to set up his knock out punch. Good luck to both.

  • Anonymous 1 year ago

    Marley interviewing BJ, cool!

    It's like d'Source interviewing Donaire and giving him a BJ.

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