UFC 118: A Bettor's Guide

UFC 118: Edgar Vs. Penn 2 has more intrigue surrounding it than your average UFC pay per view. Probably because it features the matchup between MMA legend Randy Couture and legendary loudmouth boxing champion James Toney. Not to be overlooked, BJ Penn trying to regain the title he lost to Frank Edgar and Kenny Florian and Gray Maynard vying to be next in line for the winner. The event is handicapped top to bottom below. Unfortunately for you gamblers out there, this card offers very little in the way of upset picks. I have one underdog picked to win, and even he is very close on the line.

Preliminaries:

Dan Miller (-295) vs. John Salter (+235)

Dan Miller has lost three straight fights in the UFC, and it is pretty rare for someone to get a chance to break such a streak. Given the level of his competition in the losses though (Michael Bisping, Demian Maia and Chael Sonnen), Miller deserves at least one more chance to stay employed. John Salter is coming off a win over Jason MacDonald, in which MacDonald broke his ankle in the first round, stopping the contest. Salter is a nice prospect, but his style plays nicely into Miller's incredible floor game. Look for Miller to lock up an arm bar late in the fight. That said, this fight is close enough that Salter should not be ignored at this price. MILLER DEF. SALTER BY SUBMISSION (RD 3)

"Slick" Nick Osipczak (-160) vs. Greg Soto (+130)

Soto is a very strong wrestler, which is generally a nightmare for British fighters. Osipczak though, has proven to be a handful even from his back. He dominated Matt Riddle, who is one of the best wrestlers in the game, eventually TKO'ing him from top position. Soto lost to Riddle in his only UFC appearance to date, when he was disqualified for an illegal upkick. Look for "Slick" Nick to come back from his loss in Abu Dhabi to Rick Story with a win over Soto. OSIPCZAK DEF. SOTO BY DECISION

Mike Pierce (-250) vs. Amilcar Alves (+190)

Alves has fought almost exclusively in Brazil, and has had a lot of success there. Mike Pierce has proven to be one of the top welterweight prospects in the UFC. He is 2-1 with the promotion, with his one loss to top contender Jon Fitch. When Pierce isn't taken down he is hard to deal with, and while Alves could easily sub Pierce if it gets there, Pierce will likely use his wrestling to keep things on the feet. He should dominate there, and continue his rise up the 170 lb. ladder. PIERCE DEF. ALVES BY DECISION

Andre Winner (-120) vs. Nik "The Carnie" Lentz (-110)

Winner, who was runner up to Ross Pearson on The Ultimate Fighter: USA vs. UK, has won both his UFC fights since the show's finale. He has consistently shown strong standup, but has work to do on the other areas of his game. Lentz is a phenomenal wrestler who has used that to garner decision in both his UFC wins. He also wrestled the heavily favored Thiago Tavares to a rare majority draw. Expect Lentz to take a couple of good shots from Winner, and frustrate him the majority of the night by repeatedly putting the Brit on his back. LENTZ DEF. WINNER BY DECISION

Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon (-500) vs. Gabe Reudiger (+325)

Reudiger is probably most famous for failing to make weight on season 5 of The Ultimate Fighter, when he was shown eating ice cream cake after learning he was next to fight. He failed to make the weight, and was dismissed from the show by Dana White. He finally gets another shot with the UFC, but Lauzon will be no cake walk. J-Lau has been very impressive in his post-TUF stint, though he did lose his last fight to Sam Stout. Expect Lauzon to make quick work of Reudiger, and for Gabe to once again be fighting in small shows in California. LAUZON DEF. REUDIGER BY SUBMISSION (RD 2)

MAIN CARD:

Demian Maia (-265) vs. Mario Miranda (+205)

Maia has been bounced around a little lately, as he was supposed to appear on the Fight Night 22 card in Austin, before being pushed off the card after the injury to Alan Belcher. He now takes on Miranda, who most recently finished David Loiseau at UFC 115 in June. Miranda has dangerous hands and feet, but his ground game is lacking. Maia will take advantage of every opening, and Miranda should leave plenty for this fight to go Maia's way. MAIA DEF. MIRANDA BY SUBMISSION (RD 1)

Nate Diaz (-200) vs. Marcus "The Irish Hand Grenade" Davis (+160)

This should be one of the more action packed fights of the night, as both these guys will be content to slug it out on the feet. After losing 3 of 4, Diaz has moved up to welterweight, citing his extreme weight cut as a reason for his struggles. His most recent loss was a split decision to Gray Maynard. He recently had a first round stoppage win over Rory Markham. Davis just broke a two fight losing streak with his May victory over Jonathan Goulet. Diaz is a little less explosive on the feet than Davis, but 10 times more dangerous in every other aspect of the fight. Expect Davis to slip up and find himself choked out late in the fight. DIAZ DEF. DAVIS BY SUBMISSION (RD 3)

Kenny "Ken-Flo" Florian (-155) vs. Gray "The Bully" Maynard (+125)

This fight decides who will be next in line for the lightweight title. A win for Florian would give him his 3rd title shot, while Maynard looks for his first. Maynard remains unbeaten in his MMA career, while Florian's only lost since 2006 came to BJ Penn. Maynard has dominating wrestling, but Florian has proven able to keep wrestlers on their feet, and when they do get him down, he has show a great ability to submit them. Expect the fight to go something like that, with Florian pulling off an early sub that sends him to another title shot. FLORIAN DEF. MAYNARD BY SUBMISSION (RD 1)

Randy "The Natural" Couture (-575) vs. James "Lights Out" Toney (+350)

James Toney is by far the most accomplished boxer ever to enter the UFC cage. This isn't Houston Alexander or Kimbo Slice or Tank Abbott. This is a world champion boxer. That said, Randy Couture is such a veteran and such a great wrestler that he should be able to get this fight to the ground before Toney is able to land the big shot. Once they hit the mat, Toney will be in the deepest of waters with no life preserver. Expect Couture to either tug an arm or a choke, and submit the boxer in the first round. COUTURE DEF. TONEY BY SUBMISSION (RD 1)

BJ "The Prodigy" Penn (-325) vs. Frankie "The Answer" Edgar (+250)
For The UFC Lightweight Championship

While it is rare to see odds lean so heavily towards a challenger, Frankie Edgar is probably the most overlooked champion in recent UFC history. Many people, myself included, thought BJ won the first fight. Edgar will look to prove that it was no fluke, while BJ intends to push the pace and not let the fight end in the judges hands. Expect BJ to unleash with his hands and stop this fight sometime in the first 3 rounds, taking back the crown of the division he has dominated for the last several years. PENN DEF. EDGAR BY TKO (RD 3)

SAFEST PICKS: Lauzon, Couture

RISKIEST PICKS: Diaz, Osipczak

CONSERVATIVE PARLAY: Miller, Lauzon, Maia, Couture, Penn PAYS 2.5/1

MODERATE PARLAY: Pierce, Lentz, Maia, Florian, Penn PAYS 7/1

AGGRESSIVE PARLAY: Lentz, Maia, Diaz, Florian, Couture, Penn PAYS 9/1

LOTTERY TICKET PARLAY: ALL 10 FIGHTS PAYS 35/1

Check out these UFC® 118 predictions from other MMA Examiners: