If you've somehow managed to avoid the internet, Spike TV and billboards across America, you'll be interested to know that UFC 115 is happening in Vancouver this Saturday night and there is a nice card that we can spend the next few minutes breaking down.
Light Heavyweights--Rich Franklin vs. Chuck Liddell: It goes without saying that both of these fighters need a win. Liddell hasn't won in nearly two years and Franklin's only recent win was an uninspiring decision over Wanderlei Silva that seemed to have more to do with Silva's weight cutting than Franklin's dominance. Liddell went from the preeminent KO artist in the weight class to the most likely victim with losses to Rampage Jackson, Rashad Evans and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. Franklin hasn't been the same since Anderson Silva teed off on him with knees on two separate occasions. Interestingly, both fighters' most recent wins were decisions over Wanderlei Silva and both have taken considerable time off since losing their last fights. This figures to be a stand-up fight, which is what everyone wants to see these two do. The questions, in my mind, are how will Liddell's jaw hold up to Franklin's punches, and how good will his conditioning be. Franklin always shows up in shape, but if all things are equal, Liddell is obviously the more dynamic striker. My head is telling me that the train could come off the tracks much more quickly for Liddell, but I can't bring myself to pick against him here, so against my better judgement, I won't. Prediction: Chuck Liddell by KO.
Heavyweights--Pat Barry vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic: You know how there are certain fighters (Fedor, Jose Aldo, GSP, Anderson Silva, etc) who you should never pick against, no matter who they're fighting? Well, there's a growing list of guys at the other end, who you should never pick in favor of. Cro Cop is on said list, at list my copy of it. I think the guy has completely lost the heart to fight and will give up against all but the weakest opponents. I think Pat Barry is way to small for the heavyweight division, but as a very high level kick boxer, he's great for this fight. Barry will attack Cro Cop with punches and kicks and he'll be relentless about it. I don't see it going past two rounds. Prediction: Pat Barry by TKO.
Welterweights--Martin Kampmann vs. Paulo Thiago: Despite the marquis value of the main event, this is the most intriguing and important fight on the card. Both fighters are included in most top-ten lists within the 170-pound division and both can be considered very well rounded. Both have the ability to end a fight quickly, either with strikes or submissions and this should be a really close one. My decision to go with Thiago is based simply on the fact that he's been more dynamic and holds convincing wins over some of the top welterweights (Mike Swick, Josh Koscheck) in the UFC. Yes, he lost to John Fitch, but so has just about everyone else not named GSP. Kampmann has much more than a puncher's chance in this fight, but my gut is telling me it's going to be Thiago. That probably means you should bet on Kampmann, though. Prediction: Paulo Thiago by submission.
Lightweights--Tyson Griffin vs. Evan Dunham: I like both of these guys, but I think Griffin's tool box is a little bigger. Well, maybe it's not bigger, but just better. It's kind of like two mechanics with boxes full of the same tools, but one is full of Craftsman and the other has Snap-On. Both can get the job done, but sooner or later, the Snap-On will outperform the Craftsman. I don't know how much sense that makes to you, but I'm feeling pretty good about myself after that analogy. Anyway, I like Griffin, because he's a very strong wrestler, very compact and powerful, but his striking has really come along in his last few fights. He's been too much to handle for everyone he's fought, except for Sean Shirk and Frankie Edgar, both of whom have held the lightweight belt. This has a very good chance of being the fight of the night, but whether it goes the distance or he finishes, I like Griffin to have his hand raised at the end. Prediction: Tyson Griffin by decision.
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