In case you missed it, the United States of America declared war on Iran last month, enacting sanctions that blackmail U.S. trading partners into halting imports of Iranian oil while blocking the oil-related financial transactions of Iran’s central bank.
The sanctions give Iran’s trading partners two choices. Either halt oil purchases from Iran or stop doing business in the United States. So far, the European Union (with the exception, perhaps, of Greece) and Japan have said they will go along with the new sanctions, while China, Russia and India have rejected the measures.
The new sanctions regime is designed to pressure Iran into abandoning its nuclear power program, which the Obama administration says Tehran is using as a cover for the development of nuclear weapons.
Forged laptop documents
The U.S. government claims Iran is secretly developing nuclear weapons “capabilities,” citing as evidence an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report issued in November. But a careful reading of the "evidence" reveals no such program. According to weapons experts, the report is simply a rehash of previous allegations based on information retrieved from a laptop computer turned over to the CIA in 2004. After careful analysis, scientists concluded that the laptop data – which appears in English, not Farsi, and whose provenance is questionable – was a crude and unconvincing forgery.
Despite misleading media reports, neither the IAEA nor U.S. intelligence has found verifiable evidence of a secret Iranian nuclear weapons program or the illegal diversion of prohibited nuclear material. On the contrary, a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate found with "high confidence" that the Islamic republic stopped its fledgling nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003.
Many intelligence experts, including former CIA officials, believe the effort to shut off Iran’s oil revenue is designed to provoke a hostile response, thereby creating the casus belli for a U.S. retaliatory attack.
Ron Paul: sanctions are acts of war
The latest sanctions are, in fact, “acts of war” that could very well trigger a real shooting war in the Middle East, said presidential candidate Ron Paul. “Iran would be justified in responding to the sanctions by blocking the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. He compared the western sanctions to a hypothetical move by China to block the Gulf of Mexico, which Americans would consider an act of war,” the Los Angeles Times reported.
The Iranian regime has reacted angrily to the sanctions, threatening to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for oil sanctions. One fifth of the world’s crude oil transits through the strait – just 34 miles (54 kilometers) wide at its narrowest point – the only passage from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.
Russia and China have made it clear they oppose the latest sanctions. Russia’s Foreign Ministry called the sanctions a “deeply mistaken policy” that is unlikely to bring Iran to the negotiating table.
"Under pressure of this sort, Iran will not make any concessions or any corrections to its policies," the Ministry said.
Russia warns against attack
Russia has expressed unequivocal opposition to an attack on Iran – a major trading partner. It seems very unlikely that it would sit on the sidelines if Iran were attacked by the United States or Israel. Such an attack could easily escalate into a regional conflict, drawing in Russia (and, perhaps, China), Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and pro-Iranian Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
The destruction of Iran’s Bushehr reactor would release a radioactive cloud that would sweep east over Pakistan, India and neighboring countries, killing or poisoning thousands of innocent people. In response, Iran would launch waves of Shahab II missiles at military targets and population centers in Israel, destroying towns and cities and forcing most of its citizens into bomb shelters. Iran’s ally Hezbollah would rain hundreds of rockets on Tel Aviv, Haifa and other Israeli cities. Using surface-to-surface missiles and hit-and-run suicide attacks, Iran could easily shut down oil-tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering skyrocketing oil and gasoline prices in already crumbling economies.
Worst-case scenario
Worse-case scenario: In desperation, Israel attacks Iran with nuclear-tipped Jericho missiles in an attempt to destroy its retaliatory capabilities and remove its political and military leadership. Neighboring Russia comes to Iran’s defense, launching a missile strike designed to wipe out Israel’s remaining nuclear forces. The world is now headed toward WWIII and a nuclear conflagration.
Any presidential candidate calling for an attack on Iran should be fitted with a straitjacket and banished from politics.
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