The National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued Winter Storm Warnings valid from 10 pm tonight to 1 pm Saturday due to two systems that are making their way into the region.
A Nor'Easter storm system coming in off the coast will be hitting New York City, Long Island and New England starting tonight. Boston could see up to 27 inches or snow or more.
The New York Director of Homeland Security and Emergency Services held a news conference this afternoon in which he warned of high winds, snow and coastal waves. He warned that in the NY City area could exceed 60 mph.
The New York Emergency Operations Center in Albany will be open and activated for the duration of the storm to coordinate any needed emergency response efforts.
In Northern New York, including the Adirondacks and all of St. Lawrence county, the greatest threat is from the storm system blowing in from the West that may bring up to 14 inches of snow throughout the region. There will be an average of 5-8 inches of snow along the northern Canadian border, northern Champlain Valley and north-central Vermont.
If models are correct, when the two storm systems collide, the Nor'Easter will be blown to the Northeast and out over the Canadian Maritime Provinces and over the Atlantic Ocean.
Further East, the National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories valid from 10 pm Tonight to 1 pm Saturday for Champlain Valley and northern Franklin County. In Vermont the advisories are for the Champlain Valley and Essex and Caledonia counties.
According to meterologist Scott Whitier of the National Weather Service, "confidence is very high of a Nor'easter moving from the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday morning to southeast of Cape Cod Friday Night-Saturday which means the heaviest amounts of precipitation will be across southern and eastern New England. Meanwhile, another disturbance will move across the North Country with some snow as well."
A "very high" confidence means that there is a greater than 95% chance of the predicted weather event ocurring.
New York City, Long Isand and New England will experience a much greater weather event than will the North Country. But, Northern NY could still see significant snow accumulations.
"The latest guidance and trends is not as close as forecast yesterday, thus a MUCH bigger event for Southern New England, than the North Country. A shift of 50 miles closer to the coast means much heavier snowfall for much of VT, a continued shift further away would mean less snowfall then forecast" Whitier said.
Timing
Because there are two separate storm systems to consider, exact predictions of timing are somewhat complicated. As of 4pm on Thursday, the NWS predicts that snow from the northern disturbance will move into Northern New York and Vermont Thursday Night-Friday. Snowfall from the Nor'easter moves south to north across the region during Friday with the heart of the storm Friday afternoon-night, lingering into Saturday morning for Vermont..
For areas within the Winter Warning areas, 8-14 inches could fall between tonight and Saturday, especially southeast Vermont and southwest St. Lawrence county.
According to National Weather Service policies, normally more than 6 inches of snow in less than 15 hours is considered a Winter Storm Warning. However, this storm will be a longer duration event, thus the criteria for Winter Storm Warnings has been adjusted to 9 inches.
Snowfall rates will likely exceed 1 inch per hour at times. This would be Friday into Friday night in northern New York and portions of central, southern and eastern Vermont Friday night and into Saturday morning.
The snow density will be on the light side and increasing North winds on Friday night and Saturday should account for blowing snow and reducing visibilities. This will make for hazardous driving conditions throughout the region.
The greatest commuter concerns should be Friday evenings commute, Saturday morning travel and to a slight lesser degree Friday mornings commute.
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