Nuclear armed Iran is viewed with different solutions by Turkey and the US because of the Iranian nuclear timeline, levels of threat imposed would cause negative consequences for themselves in the region. Three seperate interests define Turkey's reasoning, 1) their interest in nuclear power, interest in regional trade and energy supplies, and stability of the Middle East. Nuclear proliferation, throughout the region would not be avoided if Iran obtains nuclear weapon status believes Ankara. They would take a more provocative stance to foreign policy (nuclear deterrant), decreasing Turkey's influence, standing, and security within the region. One proliferation direction would have Saudi Arabia to pursue nuclear weapons, thus destabilizing the region.
Because of the work of Dr. Cordesman and his staff at The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and the Institute for Strategic Studies raw data has been provided for ALU scholars to design a Military Historical influence model into the politics, economy, and foreign policy of Turkey for research purposes.
Destabilization of the region can be caused by a military attack on Iran's nuclear program, bringing on line it's subsequent retaliation in the region. Ankara's feels that it's interests are best derved by their active involvement in Iran's nuclear program, searching for a peaceful settlement. Ankara feels that increased pressure on Iran would deter the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and make it difficult for them to pursue nuclear energy in the future, to reduce it's independance on outside sources for it's domestic energy needs. 70-72% of Turkey's foreign energy dependance comprises it's total energy consumption stated Energy and natural resources Minister Taner Yildiz-many of those suppliers are unstable or unsavory. To reduce the dependance on foreign sources of energy, the Turkish government has put in place a strategic plan to generate 10% of it's energy needs through nuclear power by 2023.
Akkuyu on the Mediterranean is the site of a four reactor, 1.2 gigawatt nuclear power plant which is being built by the Russian state-controlled firm Atomstroyexport, which signed a contract with Turkey in May 2010. The plants Build-Own-Operate contract will be owned, operated by Russia eliminating the need for in country enrichment process for nuclear fuel. Construction of the plant is in 2013 with full commissioning in 2021. Turkey has no plans for enrichment in the near future, however it's close proximity to Iran, using the same arguments towards proliferation would also be the case for denying Turkey nuclear technology, that it feels it has the right under the NPT. Turkey feels that their golbal perspectives limiting the transfer of nuclear technology would be an infringement on it's NPT Article IV rights to peaceful nuclear energy and attacks it's independance. Turkey continues to support Iran's enrichment right and have a civilian nuclear power program, with conforms to obligations under the NPT and additional structures, which can serve as a template for their use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Until diversification of it's energy and electricity with nuclear and pipelines to Caspian states, they will keep their relations with Iran to use their economic relations, bolstering the economy of southeast Turkey, and decreasing the power of the PKK and the PJAK.
The Military History influential model suggests, 1) have the US or NATO act as sponsor for Turkey to the NPT with their argument being Article IV, 2) working on nuclear power would serve to decrease US, NATO, even Russian military in the country and possibly the region, 3) nuclear power for peaceful purposes would stabilize and put the country on an even keel with Iran's program-thereby equalizing both powers in competition, 4) nuclear enrichment is outside the country allowing less problems associated with it's manufacture, 5) Russia can be held liable for limited/non performance of construction in the form of contracts under remedy (American and International legal systems, 6) Turkey would have an even voice in the NPT talks-expansion of their role as being a regional power, 7) nuclear deterrent, 8) stability within the region, 9) as a regional power have more clout and not be snubbed by Syria. On the opposite end; Turkey being sponsored by the US or NATO would give Iran a defense to continue their nuclear technology program based on Turkey's arguments. Other countries in the region will want to have their own nuclear capability thereby, both Iran and Turkey would be responsible for nuclear proliferation within the region or the other countries would want them to have an extended commitment similar to the US.