The protesters occupying Tahrir Square are revolutionaries. They do not have an army, a vanguard, or a military wing. As far as I can tell, they do not even have stationary with a groovy revolutionary letterhead. Yet, they intend to bring down a powerful and well entrenched government of an important state internationally. And, they might win. The government is reeling. Whatever the outcome, Egypt will never be the same. Mr. Mubarak has lost legitimacy. But, what are other countries saying? In this article, I will explore responses by the European Union, Israel and Turkey, You know what President Obama and Secretary Cinton has said. There is no need to repeat it.
Turkey
Turkey is a Muslim nation, and a democracy. It is a member of NATO and has the organizations second largest army. It was a key US ally during the Cold War.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is Turkey’s prime minister. He heads the Justice & Development Party (AKP), an offshoot of the once banned Turkish Islamist Virtue Party. AKP describes itself as conservative and pro market economy. Mr. Erdogan became the country’s prime minister in 2002 . During his administration, the Turkish economy has soared. With a growing economy, Turkey has become an important regional power.
Prime Minister Erdogan was in Kyrgyzstan when the Egyptian uprising began. Kyrgyzstan, a poor Central Asian nation, had its own revolution last year. On February 1st, Erdogan returned home and gave a stirring speech urging Hosni Mubarak to heed the call the call of the Tahrir Square protesters. In stirring language, he reminded Mr. Mubarak that his legacy is not the prerogative of a presidential edict, but the memory of his people. He urged Mr. Mubarak to insure his legacy by transitioning the country in toward democracy.
A translation of Prime Minister Erdogan’s speech will be published in a separate posting.
Turkish trade with Egypt is approximately $2 billion US annually. Turkish commentators argue that the democratic revolutions sweeping the Arab world will be bad for Turkey in the short run but great in the long run. The revolts will be economically disruptive in the short term, but will catapult the country into prominence in the long term as the Muslim model for a successful democracy and market economy.
Israel
Israel is a democracy. Bordering Egypt, it has fought five wars with this neighbor. President Mubarak commanded the Egyptian Air Force in one of those wars.
In the late 1970s, the country’s failing economy brought about civil unrest. To repair his economy, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat realigned his country from the Soviet Union to the US. An essential element of Sadat’s reorientation was a peace agreement with Israel.
Led by Saudi Arabia, Islamist rejected Egypt’s peace agreement with Israel. In 1981, radical Islamists murdered President Sadat. Al Qaeda’s Ayman al-Zawahiri was among those convicted in the conspiracy to assassinate President Sadat. Mr. Mubarak, who was Egypt’s VP was with Mr. Sadat when he was murdered.
Israel is a small country. Its security rests on its peace agreement with Egypt. But, Egypt is also crucial to Israeli security in another important matter – Gaza.
Hamas, an Islamist organization, controls Gaza. It is dedicated to the destruction of the Jewish state. It is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, but is aligned with Iran, which is also dedicated to the destruction of Israel. In coordination with Egypt, which also the Gaza Strip, Israel controls what goes in and out of Gaza. Among other things, the Egyptian/Israeli border controls over Gaza keeps out dangerous Iranian weapons.
Homemade jerry-rigged missiles from Gaza rain down on the border area in Israel. They are inaccurate and not too powerful, but they kill people all too often. However, Gaza is just 44 miles from Tel Aviv and 48 miles from Jerusalem. Beersheba is only 26 miles away. If Iran were to supply Hamas powerful and accurate missiles, then most of Israel’s major population centers would be easy targets for destruction. Israel’s security relies on the peace agreement with Egypt. It also relies on Egypt’s securing its border with Gaza.
President Mubarak has been a reliable partner for Israel. He has upheld the peace treaty and has secured the border with Gaza. The uprising in Egypt causes Israel discomfort because its outcome is uncertain, which makes the peace treaty and the border less secure. Moreover, as this crisis escalates, the likelihood that border security fails will increase.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s initial response to the Tahrir Square demonstrators was to support President Mubarak. But, on Wednesday, he told the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, “Democracy is dear to us, it is real, and it is obvious that a democratic Egypt will not endanger peace, just the opposite. If modern history teaches us anything it is that the stronger the democratic foundations, the stronger the foundations for peace,"
Europe
On Thursday, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Britain issued a joint statement demanding that President Mubarak immediately begin the transition to a democracy. Later, Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi had a change of heart. Describing Mr. Mubarak as wise, he called for the embattled Egyptian government to continue in power.
Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has not commented on this matter.
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