The New Year will start with political fireworks as this Tuesday is the Iowa caucuses and in a very real sense, the 2012 race for the White House starts over right now. Though it may feel as if the race for the Republican nomination is a year old, more for some candidates, everything up to this point has been a preseason warm up. On Tuesday the first game of the season kicks off and, while there is still no favorite, each candidate goes into the caucus with different goals and expectations. For Mitt Romney however, this is a chance to secure a playoff berth by winning the opening game.
Mitt Romney likes to tout himself as a businessman and not a career politician. This is true in that Romney spent most of his life in the private sector before being elected Governor. That said, Romney has been running for President in one form or another for the last 6 years. Romney has the organization, the professional campaign and the connections to be the clear favorite. The fact that he has not been able to break away from the pack is causing many to doubt his ability to win over Republican voters and generate the excitement needed to sustain a campaign against President Obama.
Mitt Romney is still technically the frontrunner both in Iowa and nationally, but statistically he has been underperforming all year. Mitt dropped a marker when he announced his intention to win in Iowa, until then he could have come in 3rd or even 4th and still remained viable heading into New Hampshire. This is because few really believed he could win over Iowa’s conservatives. By putting himself out there and deciding to make his stand in Iowa, Mitt took a huge gamble but the payoff is potentially huge as well.
The major story about the race for the Republican nomination has been the revolving door of candidates competing to win over Republicans, and Republicans continuously searching for a viable alternative to Romney. Republican primary voters are not convinced Mitt Romney is committed to their limited government principles given his moderate record, Northeastern pedigree and general focus on process over ideology. Romney needed to lay down his Iowa marker to demonstrate he can win over Iowa’s more rural, working class and socially conservative population.
If Romney can win in Iowa he will have enough momentum going into New Hampshire to win there as well. He has always been popular and well known in New Hampshire from his time as governor in neighboring Massachusetts. Conservatives in other parts of the country don’t necessarily view Romney’s experience as governor of Massachusetts as a positive but in New Hampshire his name recognition should be an asset. Romney is betting that a win in Iowa will cause Republicans in the follow-on primaries in South Carolina and Florida to give him another look. This makes it important for the other candidates to stop Romney from winning in Iowa. If Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire he becomes the instant favorite to win the nomination even if he does lose in South Carolina. The flip side is that by having announced he was going for the win in Iowa, a loss lends credence to the narrative that Romney has little support outside of the Northeast.
Earlier in the campaign Romney was paying Iowa minimal attention so he could focus on New Hampshire and most strategists saw this as a smart but safe play. I think Romney recognized that safe was not going to cut it for him. This is a smart move for many reasons. Romney is perceived as more of a process guy than a fighter and Conservatives are desperate for someone who will go toe to toe against Obama. The only thing conservatives fear more than a second term for Obama is another milquetoast candidate like John McCain.
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