Trying to predict the results of any television awards show is always a difficult task. It's hard to do for the Golden Globes where the broadest definitions of terms for actors and shows are often applied. But for a group like the Broadcast Critics association, giving awards for TV for four years, it's even harder because, unlike the Emmys, they have so far lived up to their mission statement of honoring shows that most awards shows miss. They've certainly demonstrated as much over the past three years.
So, for my initial attempt into trying to forecast the winners, I will do what I try to do every other time--- give my prediction for what should win and what will win. I'll probably have the same margin of error as my fellow critics. The difference being, I suspect I will be pleased with the results.
First, predictions for the Dramas
This is pretty close to my dream Emmy slot, with one major exception. All of the series on the list posted exceptional seasons, and even though my personal preference still might be for The Good Wife, it seems to me almost crystal clear what the pick will be: Breaking Bad. It's final season gave a permanent notch as one of the greatest series in television history and it's triumphs at the Golden Globes and SAG awards earlier this year would seem to indicate that it should have an easy victory.
Should Win/Will Win: Breaking Bad
Best Actor in a Drama
Bryan Cranston has already established himself as one of the great actors in history. He's won the Golden Globe and SAG award for Best Actor, and he has triumphed in this category for the last two years. Why then, am I not absolutely positive for a victory this time. It's because HBO considers True Detective a drama series rather than a mini-series. As a result Matthew McConaughey, this years breakout performance as Rust Cohle, is now in direct collision with Cranston, and honestly, it is a coin toss as to which one gave the better performance.. (This may sound unfair to the other four nominees, but it's the truth.) I am not ruling out the possibility of a tie (its happened before on this circuit) but for now, I'm going to give the barest of edges to this year Oscar winner over this years Tony winner.
Should Win: Cranston.
Will Win: McConaughey.
Best Actress in a Drama
Really tough choice among all the women in this category, and with Claire Danes, out of the runner, there's no obvious forerunner. Juliana Marguiles and Robin Wright were both exceptional this year, and Wright's victory in the Globes might give her the slimmest of edges. Tatiana Maslany for Orphan Black once again demonstrated why she is one of the five or six greatest actresses in the business, and I wouldn't object much if she repeated. I'm going to give the edge this year, though, to Keri Russell for The Americans. Her performance contained levels that the other actresses couldn't quite match, and frankly, she's been owed a trophy since Felicity.
Should Win: Maslany
Will Win: Russell.
Best Supporting Actor in A Drama
It is always incredibly difficult to try and guess who will win the Supporting Awards, as more often than not, we have little to guide us Jon Voight's success at the Golden Globes would seem to give him an edge, but they're even harder to guess than the Emmys. Aaron Paul has always been one of the most towering actors on a great series, but this is his first nomination, and they may not be as rewarding as the Emmys. I'm going to give the edge to Josh Charles for The Good Wife. He was brilliant up to the last moment on the show, his death was one of the biggest surprises in TV history, and there is a tendency to give the prize to the best exit.
Should Win: Paul
Will Win: Charles.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama
This is an even harder one to pick, especially since Allison Janney was nominated as a guest star for her work on Masters of Sex. Both Baranski and Gunn were absolutely brilliant this season, and will probably be battling it out at the Emmys. Bellamy Young was given a fairly good storyline on Scandal, the kind that Emmy voters frequently eat up. This is a category that's had ties so anything could happen. I'm going to split the difference, and give the edge to Anna Gunn. Her final episodes of Breaking Bad were some of the best work I've ever seen any actress give, and frankly for the final scene between Skyler and Walt, something should be given to Gunn for that.
Should Win/Will Win: Gunn.
Best Guest Performance in a Drama
Arrgh! Why do they have to have actors and actresses in the same category? Now Beau Bridges and Allison Janney, who each gave magnificent performances on Masters of Sex, have to compete against each other, which means the odds are good neither will prevail. There are a lot of really good nominees in this category, so I'm going to go with my gut, and say that while Janney should win, Carrie Preston for The Good Wife or Joe Morton for Scandal will win. And considering how long Morton's labored in this field without recognition, I'm going to give him the reluctant edge. Next year, cut the baby in half, please.
Should Win: Janney
Will Win: Morton.