Despite a couple flare ups over the normally more active portions of the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Eastern Pacific ocean, the overall trend is a generally benign one. Large high pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean has been in place for quite a while now, and does not look to break down anytime soon.
The action in the Pacific Ocean is well west, and away from the mainland of the United States. The typical flare ups of showers and thunderstorms over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are ongoing, and a few are being monitored for potential development just off the western central coast of Mexico.
Please reference the slide show accompanying this article, and disturbances numbered on each slide, in reference to the discussion below which will focus on each numbered area.
…ATLANTIC & CARIBBEAN DISCUSSION…
- Tropical Depression Erin (11 AM Location, per the National Hurricane Center, 20.5 N 39.3 W or 1,050 miles west northwest of the Cape Verde Islands). Erin has shown a significant weakening over the last 24 hours, as a trough of low pressure has passed to it's north, and sheared off some of the higher cloud tops associated with the showers and thunderstorms at the core of the system. Erin is not moving into a favorable location for further development, and is thus expected to weaken with time, becoming a disorganized low pressure area over the next few days
- Tropical wave ejecting westward from the African Coast. A complex of showers and thunderstorms, moving over the open waters of the Atlantic from the African continent is being watched. There are two distinct areas of enhanced convective activity, and this activity will be moving over some warmer waters. So far, no defined low level circulation is noted, however, this may change over the next day or so.
- Area of showers and storms north of the Dominican Republic. A rather unimpressive area of enhanced cloud cover, associated with some shower and thunderstorm activity was over this region, and though it does bear watching due to the warm waters that it is over, recent satellite pictures and loops seem to indicate a general westward movement and lack of organization. General weakening is forecast
- Convective activity over east central Cuba and adjacent waters. An area of disturbed weather has formed just off the coast of east central Cuba, between Cuba and southern Florida. Over the past several hours, the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this feature has shown some gradual weakening (warmer cloud tops), however, there is some evidence of a low level circulation. A deterrent to this activity’s further development would be a trough of low pressure, moving slowly eastward across the southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico, which may interact with this system in time.
- Thunderstorm development over the southern Caribbean Sea, north of Panama. An area of persistent shower and thunderstorm activity is being monitored in this area. Some enhancement has been noted with respect to cooler cloud tops (stronger storms), within this area of disturbed weather, over the last 6 to 12 hours. The general westward movement noted on satellite, would tend to bring this feature across portions of Panama and Costa Rica within the next few days.
- Convective sequence over the central Gulf of Mexico, and United States central Gulf coast. A blossoming of showers and thunderstorms has flared up along the southern edge of a trough of low pressure, extending northeastward across the interior of the eastern United States. The southern extent of this trough has become convectively active overnight Saturday, and early Sunday morning. This was thanks to a wave of low pressure that had developed over the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Most of the enhanced activity is well out over the open waters of the central Gulf of Mexico at this time. The general area will be monitored for any potential tropical development. General movement of this activity is essentially stationary over the last 6 hours since inception.
…EASTERN PACIFIC DISCUSSION…
- Area of disturbed weather over the west central Mexican coast. A flare up of showers and thunderstorms was just off the coast of west central Mexico, near and to the southeast of Puerto Vallarta. This complex of activity is rather disorganized, though some of it is rather impressive as far as vigorousness of the convection. General movement is to the west, away from any land masses.
- Convective flare up over far southeastern Pacific (near 7 N 90 W). A stand-alone area of thunderstorm activity has developed along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Recent motion with this system, since inception, has been to the west of southwest, and away from any land mass. Given this system’s relative closeness to the Equator, and it’s general movement toward the Equator, tropical depression or tropical storm development does not seem likely at this point in time.