As of Wednesday evening, the National Hurricane Center has assigned an area of disturbed weather currently centered near the Yucatan Peninsula a 70 percent chance of development by Friday, and an 80 percent chance of organization by Sunday.
Currently, models indicate the disturbance will move slowly west-northwest into the Bay of Campeche, where forecasters believe the system should grow into Tropical Storm Jerry. While a great deal of uncertainty remains regarding the ultimate path and intensity of what should become Jerry, a number of tracks take the storm towards the Florida Peninsula.
Trough could both steer and shear the system
Many models project Jerry to head towards the Florida Peninsula, due to a trough forecast to dig into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. While this trough would steer the system towards Florida, it could also shear the system, and prevent an organized storm from affecting areas in and around Tampa Bay. Nevertheless, heavy rainfall is likely across west-central Florida as the next work week begins.
Stay informed with the latest updates
To learn more about the developing system in the Gulf of Mexico, please visit the National Hurricane Center website. For more localized weather information, please visit the Tampa Bay Area National Weather Service website, the Storm Team 8 Facebook page, and Meteorologist Denis Phillips Facebook page.