On Thursday morning the threat from Emily has increased. Not due to wind, since that remains at 50 mph. It is the slow down of the forward speed to about 5 mph, which means that the heavy rain will last for a longer duration. The path has leaned towards the left side of the forecast, which will pass over Haiti. The high mountains will enhance the rainfall, which is now forecast to range between 6 inches to as much as 20 inches over the mountains. That’s right, TWENTY inches of rain may lead to mudslides in addition to flooding. This nation is still trying to recover from a hit from Hurricane Tomas last year, and the massive earthquake.
This will be a dangerous storm trying to regenerate as it tracks through the Turks and Caicos Islands. Forecasts show that it could be a hurricane when it passes the Bahamas and Florida by this weekend.
The central path put out by the National Hurricane Center appears to keep the storm off of the Outer Banks of North Carolina as it turns out to sea. There will be some rip currents and outer rain bands along Florida, but this does not appear to be a major event for the US. However the track does appear to hint a little farther west, brining tropical storm winds to Florida’s east coast. See the latest satellite video loops on the left, also the images and forecasts in the slide show. Note that there is a margin of error, and the storms may lean towards the left side of the forecast cone.
NWS Update
...CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE ISLAND OF
HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Tropical story links:
- Tropical Storm Climatology: Origin points mapped out every 10 days of theseason
- 2011 Hurricane season forecast and review of 2010
- 2011 Hurricane season video report: Joe Bastardi forecast for more US landfalls
2010 Season Recap:
NOTE: 2009 was among the least active in the last two decades (video)
Hurricane Awareness Week Links:
- Hurricane Awareness Week: History of storms 1900-1979
- Hurricane Awareness Week: History of Atlantic storms 1980-2005
- Hurricane Awareness Week: Storm surge highlights oil danger on Louisiana coast
- Hurricane Awareness Week: Inland Flooding
NEW:Satellite Loop Movie: 72 hours of Total Precipitable Water and TRMM
Watches and Warnings:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
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