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Tropical Storm Cristobal heads north

Tropical Storm Cristobal is turning into yet another non-event, during what has been a mostly quiet hurricane season. As of 8 a.m. Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center reported Cristobal had top sustained winds of 60 miles an hour and located about 115 miles east-northeast of San Salvador. Cristobal was barely moving to the north at 3 miles an hour.

The 5-day forecast track shows Cristobal taking a slight turn to the east, on a track that would take into the middle of the Atlantic where it might bring high surf to the island of Bermuda and possibly threaten some shipping lanes. With this forecast it's almost a footnote that NHC forecaster Daniel Brown says in his Monday morning forecast discussion that Cristobal could reach hurricane strength over the next couple of days.

Forecasters are keeping an eye on a disturbed weather area about 1100 miles off the Cape Verde Islands, but for the next two days they give it a 0% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone and over the next three days they give it only a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression or other storm system.

While the 2014 Hurricane Season is following in the footsteps of the quiet 2013 season, there's no room for complacency as September and October are often very active, with storms forming in the Gulf of Mexico presenting a special danger. They can develop quickly, the warm Gulf waters provide excellent fuel and their courses can be difficult to predict. It's also worth remembering that unless they fizzle out Gulf storms will make landfall somewhere.

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