The second tropical depression of the 2014 hurricane season is so weak that the National Hurricane Center has downgraded it to a tropical wave some 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. In his Wednesday morning discussion forecaster Eric Blake explains why TD 2 was downgraded. "Visible satellite imagery indicate that the depression has weakened overnight, with only a weak swirl remaining with no deep convection. Low-level cloud motions show no evidence of a closed surface circulation so this is the last advisory on this system issued by NHC."
According to Blake, the wave could bring some gusty winds and rain as it crosses the Lesser Antilles and enters the Caribbean. Posting on the Weather Underground website, hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a blunt assessment of the wave's chances of regenerating. “The chances of re-development are NIL". So much for Tropical Depression 2.
As far as the rest of the tropical weather picture is concerned, the picture is a fairly quiet one, with forecasters keeping an eye on various weather systems in the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. While a detailed discussion about those features is available at the NHC website the findings can be summed up as “nothing doing” at least for the next few days.
While we have only had one named storm so far in the 2014 season, forecasters are so far very pleased with the offseason changes in two of their most reliable computer models. Posting on Weather Underground, Drs. Morris Bender, Vijay Tallapragada and Timothy Marchok have an upbeat review of the GFDL and HWRF models. According to their post the new-and-improved HWRF did significantly better at predicting course and intensity of 2013 storms compared to the old version. Both GFDL and HWRF performed well in predicting the course and intenisity of Hurricane Arthur earlier this month.