As the 2011 NBA Finals wind down into what should be a 7-game series between the Mavericks and Heat, it's time to put out early rankings for the 2011-2012 season. The first group up is point guards, which has certainly become the most important position in the game, both in fantasy and the NBA.
A core of young stars led by Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry (just to name a few) has made this the most exciting position on the court. At the same time, the depth at the position is increasing as well.
Relatively unknown players to the casual basketball fan such as Kyle Lowry, D.J. Augustin and Jose Calderon made point guard as deep a position as there is in fantasy, so if you miss out early on the premier players, know there is help in the later rounds.
With the NBA Draft and free agency still to come, this list could easily change between now and the beginning of the season. But for now, here are the top 25 point guards for 2011.
1. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets: There were major injury concerns for Paul entering the 2010 season, but the top fantasy point guard in the league shook them off by playing in 80 games and finishing fourth in the league in assists. His all-around game is still tops in the league and he should not make it past the first three picks of fantasy drafts next season.
2. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls: Consider me a believer. Because most fantasy leagues only comprise of the regular season, Rose comes in as the second best point guard. He was clearly exhausted in the Miami series, but his numbers speak for themselves. His scoring will be there and if the Bulls can bring in a shooting guard, his assist numbers could rise as well.
3. Deron Williams, New Jersey Nets: Williams was a major disappointment for fantasy owners, struggling with a wrist injury the second half of the season and posting sub-par numbers (for his standards) in New Jersey. Still, Williams is in the last year of his contract and needs a big 2011, and history shows that this will happen. Feel free drafting Williams anywhere in the second round of drafts.
4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors: This spot on the list is based on the speculation that shooting guard Monta Ellis will be shipped out before the season begins. The two can not work together, and Curry is the future. The second year guard out of Davidson shot 48 percent, hit two threes per game, and averaged 1.5 steals while shooting 94 percent from the free throw line. He does a little bit of everything and will see a huge stock rise if Ellis leaves.
5. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder: If Westbrook were on about 27 other teams, his fantasy stock would be through the roof. But the shot-happy Westbrook's value takes a hit with Kevin Durant around. Still, he has become one of the premier point guards in the league. His turnovers will continue to be an issue but, other than that, Westbrook can only improve on his excellent 2010 campaign.
6. John Wall, Washington Wizards: The historic play of Blake Griffin really shadowed Wall's impressive rookie campaign last year. The negatives were there for the first year guard (41 percent shooting, 3.8 turnovers, 76% FT) but the raw talent is there, and another year should do wonders for Wall. He also dealt with injuries for much of the season, so a healthy Wall should see improvement as well.
7. Rajan Rondo, Boston Celtics: If there was a more frustrating player to own down the stretch this year than Rondo, let me know. The Celtics' point guard averaged 9.5 points on 41 percent and just 8.9 assists in 15 March games and wasn't much better in April. The assist totals were troubling considering his lack of scoring and, while the steals were still there, he will need to return to his triple-double form to warrant a third round selection next year. My guess is he gets there.
8. Monta Ellis, Golden State Warriors: Move Ellis up one or two spots if he stays in California, but it doesn't look that way as of now. Regardless of where he goes (outside of New York, which isn't likely), his stock is going to fall. Golden State was perfect for Ellis, who averaged 24.1 points and 5.6 assists while ranking third in the league with 2.1 steals per game. A move to Charlotte or Philadelphia would slow his game down, and his numbers would suffer because of it.
9. Jrue Holiday, Philadelphia 76ers: Looking for a player who could make a Derrick Rose-like jump in 2011? You found him. From a fantasy perspective, the 21-year-old Holiday was inconsistent much of the year but played his best basketball at the end of the year, which should mean even more positive returns in 2011. Holiday could easily reach second round value by the end of the year.
10. Tyreke Evans, Sacramento Kings: He is frustrating to own, and injuries last year didn't help, but Evans still comes in as a top-1o point guard. Despite playing just 57 games last year, many of them with plantar fasciitis, Evans still finished with a respectable 17.8-4.8-5.6 line. A healthy Evans in 2011 could do serious damage and, if the Kings draft point guard Kemba Walker, it would improve Evans' stock by moving him to shooting guard.
11. Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns: The 37-year-old ageless wonder keeps putting up numbers. Never doubt him.
12. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies: The biggest winner from the NBA Playoffs will be next year's Jrue Holiday.
13. Kyle Lowry, Houston Rockets: Consistent and will now have the starting gig to himself for an entire year.
14. Brandon Jennings, Milwaukee Bucks: Maybe a bit of a homer pick, but I see Jennings (and the Bucks) turning it around in 2011.
15. Chauncey Billups, New York Knicks: The Knicks could use their first round pick on a point guard (Josh Selby?), but for now Billups is the starter on a team with Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony. Not bad.
16. Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs: If you can live with the bad (0.3 threes, 76% FT, 0.0 blocks) you can live with the good (17.5 points, 52% FG, 6.6 assists)
17. Jason Kidd, Dallas Mavericks: If the Mavs re-sign J.J. Barea, Kidd's stock goes way down as the team looks to get younger at the position.
18. Devin Harris, Utah Jazz: The supporting cast is there for Harris to succeed. Now he needs to stay healthy. Jazz may use third pick in NBA Draft on point guard Brandon Knight, which would hurt Harris' stock.
19. Kyrie Irving, Duke*: Assuming he goes to the Cavaliers, it's hard not to see him stepping in right away and playing 35+ minutes a night, regardless of what Byron Scott says about Baron Davis being the starter.
20. Darren Collison, Indiana Pacers: A sleeper a year ago, Collison disappointed. However, the Pacers should improve as a team next year, and much of that will start with Collison. A sleeper once again.
21. Raymond Felton, Denver Nuggets: Felton is the better player...
22. Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets: ...but Lawson has more upside. These two will split time in 2011, hurting both stocks.
23. Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks: Going blow for blow with Derrick Rose in the Playoffs this year did wonders for Teague's confidence.
24. Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves: If the Wolves add Arizona's Derrick Williams in the draft, Rubio gets a big-time playmaker to go with Kevin Love. Could be a great pick-up for assists.
25. D.J. Augustin, Charlotte Bobcats: Showed much improvement in 2010, should continue upward trend in 2011.
Rest of the best: Jameer Nelson (ORL), Mo Williams (LAC), Baron Davis (CLE), Ramon Sessions (CLE), Andre Miller (POR), Rodney Stuckey (DET)
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