Hollywood is known for its epic twists and that’s exactly what went down Thursday when in the span of just a few hours the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) and the Broadcast Film Critics Association (BFCA) both displayed radically different thoughts about the best films of 2012. Tonight, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) gets their turn with the Golden Globes and based on the latest experts picks from the contributors of award site Gold Derby all bets are off.
While it is not unusual for the different guilds and voting bodies of Hollywood to differ in their opinions, it is hard to remember a time when they were this far apart. The Oscar morning snubs of previous favorites Ben Affleck, Kathryn Bigelow and Tom Hooper provided a major shock to the award show system. As a result when Affleck and his film “Argo” topped all comers at the BFCA’s Critics’ Choice Awards that same night, the industry came away stunned.
Could that type of upset happen again tonight? While stranger things have happened, the latest predictions by Gold Derby’s talented team of contributors seem to think otherwise. Film critics from such respected organizations as Entertainment Weekly, IMDB and USA Today have all weighed in and seem to believe the Globes will put award season back on track and reward Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” with Best Drama. In fact 11 out of the 18 major critics have selected the bio pic as the frontrunner with “Argo” placing second and one time lead dog “Zero Dark Thirty” in a distant third.
Over in the comedy/musical category it’s even more decisive with 14 of the 18 choosing “Les Miserables,” which got destroyed by “Silver Linings Playbook” at the Critics’ Choice Awards. In fact the “Les Mis”/”Playbook” battle should be a theme throughout the night as the major stars from both films are also nominated which sets up a rematch.
Yet is important to remember that seeing as how the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is made up of just 90 members the votes are going to be a lot closer and if this group has proven one thing over the years it is that they tend to reward the hottest box office hand. In this case that may lead to a win by Leonardo DiCaprio who was (like so many) snubbed by the Oscars. If that happens it would create even more chaos in the supporting actor field as the Globes and Oscars have matched up in this category all but twice since 2000.
If the voters remain consistent it would also give Anne Hathaway an edge over her closest competitor Sally Field, but seeing as how the Oscars tend to reward industry veterans, it won’t be that much of one. Field and “Lincoln” are expected to have a good night at the Dolby Theater next month when the Oscars are handed out.
While Field’s director Steven Spielberg also now becomes the Oscar favorite with Affleck and Bigelow out of contention, Derby’s experts though believe Affleck could again play dark horse spoiler and continue to make Academy voters look foolish for slighting him.
To quote another famous Oscar film….“fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy night!”
The 70th Annual Golden Globes air tonight on NBC.
So what’s your take New York? Who are your favorites? Hit the comments and let us know. Remember, don’t forget to subscribe to this column for all of the latest news about award season.