On the heels of today's freezing rain threat will be a very dynamic and active weather pattern Monday night through Tuesday night that includes the possibility of record to near record warmth, thunderstorms (possibly severe), and the threat of flooding due to heavy rainfall.
Tonight through Monday
Freezing rain and sleet will come to an end this evening and tonight as a warm front associated with a storm system continues to lift north/northeast over the area resulting in temperatures surpassing the freezing mark. Nothing major in terms of weather is in storm for Monday. Just mainly clouds and areas of light rain/drizzle as temperatures continue to rise.
Tuesday
Record high temperatures of 55 and 59 in Rockford and Chicago, respectively, are in jeopardy Tuesday as gusty southwest winds will allow for strong warm air advection from the south. In addition to the mild temperatures will be strong moisture flux allowing dewpoints to climb to levels rarely seen here in January (low 60s).
It's and airmass that certainly is capable of providing shear and plenty of instability for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. That certainly will be the case on Tuesday as a pretty potent and deepening area of low pressure associated with a large upper level trough currently over the southwest U.S. lifts northeast into the region on Tuesday. Computer models are in good agreement on the storm's track (right now tracking southeast of the metro area). Anywhere from Illinois and Indiana southwest to Texas has a chance for thunderstorms (possibly severe). In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has placed this very area under a slight risk category for severe weather on Tuesday. This includes cities such as Austin, Dallas, Shreveport, Little Rock, Memphis, Springfield, Paducah, Evansville, St. Louis, Peoria, and areas just south of Chicago.
In addition to the threat for severe thunderstorms will be the threat/possibilities of flooding. Heavy rainfall is forecast to fall over the Chicago land area. This combined with a frozen ground could create runoff and flooding.Several models are suggesting anywhere from an inch to more than 2 inches to fall by Wednesday evening.
Wednesday
Behind the low pressure system will come much cooler air on Wednesday. Temperatures will plunge back into the 30s late Tuesday and Wednesday. There is the possibility of a few snow showers during the day on Wednesday.
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