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Thousands of protestors have taken to the streets again today in Iran in protest against the rigged elections and current Iranian regime. There have been reports that they have been fired on with tear gas.
These renewed demonstrations also bring renewed opportunities for Obama and the United States, opportunities that Obama missed the first time.
The images of the Iranian demonstrators taking to the streets to protest a rigged election captivated the whole world for two weeks back in June. The murder of Neda, shot down by an Iranian government thug galvanized people all over the world. But Obama's tepid response to all these events has made him look weak and ineffectual, especially in light of the forceful statements by other countries like the UK, France and Germany. While Obama has his defenders, it couldn't be for any other reason except to try and preserve some kind of negotiating position with a corrupt and dishonest , untrustworthy regime that is now teetering and on the verge of collapse. Which is quickly making Obama's original position obsolete as events pass him by.
While US interests are always on the side of democracy and human rights, something Obama should have made loud and clear during the brutality being rained down on the demonstrators, our primary interest has always been to prevent the present regime from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
From any realistic point of view there are only three ways to do that: war, negotiation. or through a change in the present Iranian government.
Right now, the events in Iran represent the best opportunity in 30 years to affect a change to a more moderate government in Iran. This opportunity has obviously eluded Obama from the beginning.
Organizing economic sanctions against the current Iranian regime given the dire state of their economy, would have had benefits of both empowering the demonstrators and weakening the present regime giving the moderate forces in Iran even further motivation. And even if the current regime was able to stay in power, it will be severely weaked and economic sanctions could be a real negotiating tool to bring about a non nuclear Iran.
But empowering the demonstrators, letting them know they have world support and sympathy and putting the current government on the defensive, yes, meddling, is still possible and can still have a revolutionary effect.
How likely is it that this current government could collapse? In a television interview with CNN, an Iranian who was one of the founders of the Revolutionary Guard but no longer a part of the current regime, made the incredible statement that in his opinion, it was very possible that if the demonstrations in Iran grew louder and the current government tried to employ harsher and more brutal tactics such as the use of deadly force, the Revolutionary Guard, the principal Iranian military that would be used against the demonstrators,would refuse to fire on their own people and turn against the present government themselves.
At the very least a decision on the part of the Revolutionary Guard to defy an order by Ahmadinejad or the Ayatollah would weaken the government to such a degree that another revolution could take place forcing the present government out of power.
Is empowering the demonstrators, organizing world opinion against the current regime and threatening embargos and sanctions a risk? Maybe. But not as risky as a nuclear Iran. And Obama has so far shirked from the opportunity that has presented itself.
The events in Iran demand speaking out, getting tough and rallying the rest of the world governments to stand up against the dishonest election and the brutality against those demonstrating. And if we are to believe the Obama PR, Obama supposedly has made an impression on many of the Arab countries with his Cairo speech. If that's the case ( as Keith Olbermann would have us believe) then there couldn't be a better time to use that political capital assuming he really has any, to rally Arab nations, many of whom are as concerned about a nuclear Iran as the West, to stand up and speak out against the brutality and oppression shown by the government against the demonstrators furthering empowering the opposition and taking way the argument that this is inspired by the west.
Obama has employed neither strategy. Instead he has said that he didn't want to be seen as meddling and has been accused by Ahmadinejad of meddling anyway which leaves Obama left holding an empty bag. He has given up a negotiating position and gotten nothing in return. The strategy looks more like dope-on-a-rope than rope-a-dope.
But the opportunities are still there. Obama should try. He should make the attempt and rally the world now against the Iranian government, push for economic sanctions as a reaction to rigged elections and brutality against the demonstrators, empower those standing for democracy, stop giving a damn what Ahmadinejad will call him and hope its not too late.
Comments
Great Comment! I hope Obama and his administration wake up to the importance of the times, and to help the victims and demonstrators. It is time that the Iranian people get recognized through out the world as sufferers under a Nazi Islamic regime. And their courage in the face of extreme brutality be recognized, and be hailed by the world as, "Heros" fighting for human rights and freedom.
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