Senator Bill Nelson is, in theory, the Platonic moderate that thrives in a political landscape with extremes in both directions. However, with his co-sponsoring of the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) this past week, his support of it up until it's indefinite hold on being taken to a vote, and his criticisms of the Public Option in the original health care bill may (or if Florida's voters are as devoted to their respective party platforms, should) alienate voters of both parties looking for a moderate answer.
There is no polling data yet to suggest these things have hurt Nelson broadly in this election (he hovers around 40% to various Republican options hovering in the high 30's), however, in the 2006 race, he ultimately defeated Katherine Harris with 60% to Harris' 38%. The reason more moderate Republicans seeking to distance themselves from the firmly-Republican company of Connie Mack, former US Senator LeMieux (a Charlie Crist appointee), and State House Majority Leader Adam Hasner may not want to look to Nelson for this moderation is that his support of SOPA suggests two things; it suggests Nelson is not content merely increasing regulation, but seems unconcerned with the questions of constitutionality beyond the bill's misleading title's intent, chiefly that it violates due process.
Florida's junior senator, Marco Rubio, was originally a proponent of the legislation, citing the need to crack down on piracy, but ultimately declined to support the bill at the time of last week's protests. Rubio could potentially fill the moderating void created by Nelson's inconsistencies of the last couple of years, however, the more conservative Republicans running for Nelson's seat may not be able to fill it, leaving the possibility that a Democrat could and, frankly, should challenge Nelson.
At present, Connie Mack IV has a comfortable margin over the other Republican candidates, with LeMieux's lack of popularity demonstrating a resounding holdover of the anti-Crist/center-right mindset that ultimately elected Rubio by a comfortable margin over Crist, and a seemingly inavigable chasm between the two and Democrat Kendrick Meek. In a general election, Nelson rests around 45-48% (a far cry from his 60% in 2006) to the various Republican candidates' 35-38%. Nelson and Mack have the closest estimated results at 41% to 40%, respectively
At this point, consulting numbers specificially does nothing but reaffirm what Jeb Bush suggested in 2008. Bush alluded to President Obama's victory in Florida, yet pointed out that few Democrats in the state gained office in races that could've, and were projected to be very close, and concluded, much like President Bush would muse that December, that the United States would continue to be a "center-right nation", and it certainly seems to be pulling in that direction nationwide, but nowhere near as drastically as in Florida.
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