Of all the countless Money Show's that I have attended in San Francisco, this is the first one where I decided to go to the Opening Ceremonies on Thursday - I'm glad I did. The array of speakers was formidable: Sam Stovall from Standard & Poor's gave the most informational talk; bullish, he stated with persuasive historical numbers the value of just staying the markets indefinitely. Most corrections ( 19 which were minus 10-20% declines) took only 4 months to recover lost levels - the few real Bear markets from 12 to 24 months. Minor downturns - 5-10% averaged only 1 month to get it back.
Sam likened this period to 1994, where interest rates rose - during that time stocks actually gained 5%, until the long rate hit 6%. His recommendations were the ETFs: SPHQ, high quality dividend-paying stocks, and the SDY - S&P's Aristocrats.
Next up was local Roger McNamee, a veteran technology investor - even though tech is not high on my list of need-to-know facts. His talk was the most dynamic of the morning with analysis and thoughts on the rosy future for the Internet and the U.S. HTML5 and "Context" were the ideas to follow, as well as Home Clouds - not the universal one, but individual ones with only one's data. Preferring AAPL over GOOG, he thought LinkedIn and Amazon were overpriced.
Familiar Steve Forbes was next, bashing Obama and all things regulatory, anti-Free-market. As usual with his TV appearances, he urged the Republicans to get their act together to overtake the Senate in 2014, then more. He lambasted Ben Bernanke calling the QEs (Queen Elizabeth) the Titanic! He made the point of nationalizing health insurance, not leaving it up to each state.
The final speaker was the popular Jim Rogers, ex-patriot who lives in Singapore and is most bullish on China - taking over the helm from the U.S. in the 21st C.
He schooled at Yale and Oxford, then went on to join George Soros in starting the Quantum Fund.
After spending the majority of the time with his family and world touring, he advised people to sell all bonds and buy natural resources, agriculture. He has a Doom outlook based on the increased debt globally, and the debasing of all currencies around the world, which will end badly, and soon. The Dollar is the tallest midget in the room.
The rest of the week includes an impressive list of speakers, but most familiar names - John Bollinger, Elaine Garzarelli, Laszlo Birinyi, IBD's William O'Neil and more- had paid meetings. The Exhibit Hall featured the usual energy and MLP booths, and even Golden Gate University had one, with Martin Pring's co-teacher at GGU - Brett Villaume giving a talk on Friday.
Two of my favorite speakers - mostly because in the past I engaged them as speakers for monthly meetings of the TSAA - Technical Securities Ass'n - were Harry Domash, of the Dividend Detective.com site; and Mark Liebovit who times the market via Volume at VRTrader.com (Volume Reversal). Mark has agreed to do an Examiner interview with me in the near future.
As for last week's Sentiment (please see table at:
http://mktsentiment.blogspot.com/), we are still at near record extremes - Bullish %, Margin Interest, and Insider Selling, although these and many other Indicators have backed off their highs. Since Joe Sixpack and other retail investors are not committed to stocks yet, there is probably more upside to stocks, but we are in the Terrible Two's months, and I shall be on vacation and in Cash for most of it.