The Tennessee Republican legislative landscape

State Rep. Stacey Campfield will have a "major" opponent in next year's Republican Primary in the 7th Senate District, and it will be deja-vu for anyone who remembers Campfield's 2008 primary, because his opponent is once again the University of Tennessee General Council Ron Leadbetter. Apparently, Leadbetter wasn't pleased with one beating two years ago in the intra-party contest for the 18th District House seat, so he's decided to come back for seconds against Campfield in the race for the Senate seat being vacated by Tim Burchett. Burchett's successor, who it is said he believes privately is most likely to be Campfield, will enter a Tennessee Senate that is a thoroughly Republican body. Its committee chairs are all Republicans, it has a decidedly Republican majority, and a Republican will likely preside over it for many years to come.

The contest for Campfield's House seat in the 18th District may prove interesting as one of Stacey Campfield's political mentors, Knoxville City Councilman Steve Hall, prepares to run for the seat that would be safe for Campfield if he had chosen to run again. If Hall is elected in Campfield's place in the West Knoxville constituency, voters will have chosen a legislator even more conservative than the firey Irish redhead who he will replace. Stacey Campfield's successor will enter a House Republican Caucus which increasing has questions of leadership in its own right, and may well continue even with projected Republican House gains in next year's General Election.

Rumors are circulating as to whether House Republican Leader Jason Mumpower will stand for Leader after the next election, or even whether he will run for the House again. Mumpower has tried to put the kabbosh on these speculations already:

Mumpower also said that speculation he may cut back on legislative efforts - by some accounts to take a position with Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey's gubernatorial campaign -- is unfounded.

"Anything you've heard is rumor. None of that is true," he said.

Specifically, Mumpower said he plans to seek reelection to his House seat next year, then seek reelection as House Republican leader and, if the GOP has a majority, try again to be elected speaker.

While rumors of Mumpower's immediate political demise seem to be greatly exaggerated, some of his colleagues privately believe that the Leader may face a challenge to his position after the 2010 elections are over, but by whom and precisely in what form such a challenge might take is very much unclear.

For his part, Mumpower doesn't seem particularly worried. I happened to see him the other day in a distinctly non-political setting, and warm greetings were exchanged between us. While Jason Mumpower almost always seems like he is in a hurry, I seemed to detect a lack of worry on his part that was both refreshing and under the circumstances more than a little surprising, especially for someone who has been involved in State politics for nearly all of his adult life. If Mumpower is worried about his future, it doesn't seem to show. Perhaps this is because he also has other non-political plans, or maybe he actually has some fight in him. While Mumpower choosing to stand aside would not come as a surprise, deciding to stay on for one last battle might be the way the man who would be Speaker would like to be remembered