In Part II of this two-part report, Texans Examiner contributor Jay Dale (@jay_dale on Twitter) takes a look at the financial risks involved if the Texans are forced to match another team's restricted free agent offer to Arian Foster. Dale argues that the Texans need to get a long term deal done with Foster before free agency begins in a little over a month.
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There are quite a few teams in the NFL that have a lot of money to spend in this offseason, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Tampa to name a few (the speculation is that Tampa has close to $55 million under the cap to use). What does a team that has almost unlimited monetary resources that feels it’s one superstar running back away from being a contender do?
Simple – you go to the Texans and you offer the sun, the moon, and the stars to Foster – willing to sacrifice that 1st round pick that probably wouldn’t get you over the hump in the first place.
So now you force the Texans to do one of two things – first, you put them in the position they don’t want to be in – matching a contract they didn’t come up with to pay their best overall player.
By signing Foster to a new contract, the Texans can pay him whatever they need, give him a large signing bonus, then backload the annual salary so they can look into signing players like Williams, Myers, and Briesel – the anchors of their defense and offensive lines.
The Texans can restructure Foster’s contract at a later time, and everyone’s happy. But if they are forced to match a contract offered by another team, and that contract is out of this world large – then you can pretty much tell guys like Mario, Myers, Briesel – thanks for all you’ve done and good luck in the future.
Your cap is now full, your ability to sign street free agents and, more importantly, your own free agents has now been limited, and that Super Bowl contender status you’ve built up has now pretty much declined to “Maybe they’ll win the AFC South” status.
The second thing is the scariest part – you simply can’t afford to match the deal and Foster leaves. Imagine Arian Foster, doing his TD celebratory bow – wearing a Tampa Bay Bucs uniform.
Ok, so you’re thinking at this point “That’s all fine and good, but no way some team will offer that much to Foster” Really?
The truth is, we don’t know what teams will offer or what they can afford. If he’s offered anything between what Chris Johnson got and what Peyton Manning got, being the overall best back (and arguably best player) in the league will at least get him in the $15-$17 million per year mark.
And we’re all concerned about Mario and his $16-$22 million franchise amount for one year! If Mario’s compensation hamstrings the club in signing free agents, this scenario is even worse than Mario’s.
So what’s the solution you ask? It’s simple – the Texans HAVE to do a new deal with Foster before another team can come along and offers Foster a contract that the Texans either can’t match and lets Foster go to another team, or that the team can match but then hampers their ability to re-sign other players.
If they can’t come up with something, it is my firm belief that another team will come along and do it for them.
Let’s hope that the Texans aren’t forced into that decision.
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Thanks to Jay Dale for providing this perspective on Arian Foster's free agent situation.
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