Many media stories at the end of 2010 discussed job creation and how jobless claims are less now than at the end of 2009. In reality, job creation is meager considering we are recovering from the Great Recession. Without seeing the real jobs picture, it’s impossible for legislators, corporations, small businesses, entrepreneurs and citizens to address what needs to be done for jobs going forward. There are many instances where employment reports are skewed by using selected “good” numbers while ignoring the “real” numbers. What follows is a “good” numbers v. “real” numbers comparison.
Private employment increased by an average of 106,000 per month through November. At that rate, it would take more than 6 years just to replace the jobs lost during the latest recession.
Notice the reference to "private employment". These reports often ignore the reality of public jobs, which are being axed at state and local governments. Does it matter if public jobs are being cut if private jobs are being increased? Sure it does, but not according to many who follow the jobs numbers for some odd reason.
One of the most abused employment numbers is the jobs creation figure touted by many current federal appointees and politicos. From January through November, the entire US economy created 951,000 jobs. Sounds good, doesn’t it? Unfortunately, that monthly average of 86,000 jobs a month is 39,000 jobs a month short of simply filling the 125,000 jobs needed for NEW entrants to the workforce. That’s 429,000 fewer jobs than needed to break even during the January through November period.
While it could take more than six years to replace jobs lost during the recession, it will take much longer when considering the jobs needed to keep up with new entrants to the workforce, but that fact is seldom mentioned.
The government has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on business tax breaks and received fewer jobs than then were outsourced by those same businesses.
The Economic Policy Institute, a Washington think tank, says American companies have created 1.4 million jobs overseas this year, compared with less than 1 million in the U.S. The additional 1.4 million jobs would have lowered the U.S. unemployment rate to 8.9%, says Robert Scott, the institute's senior international economist.
The 2009, $800 billion stimulus bill was deemed a massive jobs creator, but what did those jobs cost? According to Recovery.gov, the money spent has created or saved 3.2 million jobs, or about $250,000 per job. While much of the stimulus funds went to various tax breaks for individuals, it’s helpful to look at the bigger picture to see the total cost per job. How will those jobs be saved when stimulus funds slow and eventually end? Will the private sector come in and take on that responsibility? Not likely. And with Republicans taking control of the House with their ill conceived spending destruction schemes, the end of stimulus funds could come sooner than predicted.
The job openings picture, while improving, is not to a point where it is able to make a dent in the unemployment/underemployment rate. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report shows 3.4 million job openings on the last business day of October 2010. There are 15 million unemployed, 2.5 million marginally attached workers (not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work) and another 9 million underemployed seeking full-time work. As a result, there are 26.5 million unemployed/underemployed and 3.4 million job openings, or nearly 8 job seekers for each advertised job opening. Unfortunately, those job openings contain part-time, seasonal, contract and temporary jobs, which make the number of job seekers compared to job openings look better than it is actually.
How many part-time jobs are being created compared to full-time jobs? It’s an important distinction since businesses hire full-time people when they are confident of improving business conditions. Full-time jobs also offer better pay, better benefits and more security, generally.
In a nutshell: in December 2007 there were 121.7 million full time jobs, while 24.8 million Americans were part-time workers for economic reasons; fast forward to November 2010 where we find that 111.1 million employees are now full time, while the rank of the part-times have increased to 27.6 million. And it is not rocket science, that converting a population to part-time workers has a disastrous impact on wealth. Yet more and more people are forced to work part-time, even as full time working Americans are now at their lowest since February 2010. But for some odd reason the market remains transfixed that 39k very much adjusted and completely unrealistic people may have found a job on private payrolls in November, even as full time jobs dropped by 478k.
It is a new year and it’s important to be positive when seeking work, but it’s also important to be realistic.
Baumohl and some other economists forecast between 2.5 million and 3 million jobs being added to U.S. payrolls in 2011, about triple the gains likely to be recorded in 2010 and what would be the best one-year jump since the white hot labor market of 1999.
These so called experts fail to see some very important factors. Even if 3 million jobs are created in 2011, it takes 125,000 jobs a month to break even with new workforce entrants. In 2011 it will take 1.5 million jobs must be created to keep the unemployment rate steady. The remaining 1.5 million new jobs will be available to the other 25 million unemployed/underemployed seeking full-time work.
And according to the Economic Populist: A Decade of Job Stagnation In 2000, 135 million citizens were employed. In 2010 there were 139 million Americans employed. Given the 9.7% increase in population since 2000, we would expect to see at least 148 million citizens with jobs.
Where are those jobs? The US is still in the midst of a jobs shortage and unless jobs are created quickly, millions of people who want to work will be left behind in any recovery. This weak jobs recovery needs more than pom poms and spin, it needs to be taken seriously and acted on accordingly. Millions of unemployed and underemployed Americans cannot wait another 6-8 years for jobs to return to the level needed for a healthy job market.
99ers
For those 99ers holding on for hope of Tier 5, with Republicans coming into House control, the Tier 5 legislation outlook is not bright. Neither chamber is in session until Wednesday, when both will convene at noon for the start of the 112th Congress.
The attached video includes an appearance by Kian Fredrick, a 99er advocate who has worked diligently for Tier 5, jobs and other unemployment issues. Kian organized the Wall Street protest in August and was arrested during a protest for 99ers this fall. Kian is the organizer of http://flashmobs4jobs.blogspot.com/ and is always working to help the 99er effort.
It may take more protests and street actions to to get the attention of Congress, since jobs are not being created quickly enough to help millions of 99ers and long-term unemployed.
The Daily List
Please consider subscribing to Rochester Unemployment Examiner articles. This is a simple task of clicking on the Subscribe button above, which is located directly below the title of my post, and then entering your email address. When I add a new post, you will be notified at the email address you enter. You won't receive any spam, just my posts. Thanks.
I'm looking for stories from people who have been rejected during the hiring process for being unemployed. Have you been the victim of a temp agency that won't give you an interview because you are unemployed? Have you seen jobs ads for "employed only" or "unemployed need not apply"? Have you lost a chance at a job due to a poor credit score? Send your job rejection experiences to mike@layofflist.org.
You can also view my updates and new posts at Twitter: http://twitter.com/layofflist.
Huffington Post
Huffington Post is kind enough to give me a chance to post my work at their site. I hope to be able to spread the 99er word using their larger audience. You can see my efforts at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-thornton.
Comments
Obama is all talk and a fake and liar worst President ever.
I agree with jim I voted for Obama what a mistake, I'm a 99ers Obama care for illegals which make me think he is also one too.
I agree with you both Jim and John....he never even mentions or acknowledges the 99ers so how thehell would he be interested in helping us. He had the perfect time during his " negotiations" but he rather carry on about the dream act....just kill all Americans chances at getting jobs!!
Thank you MIke for an excellent report as usual. And for giving us the real facts and figures regarding the unemployment situation. Both political parties Democrat & Republican are fighting hard for a seat in the White House in 2012.
So we have to convince them that the 99er will play a hugh roll in this next election.
Through out the week we need those 99er members who can, to call, fax, email and post on their representatives sites a message saying the 99ers number in the millions. And currently that number is over 5 million strong.
And those millions of 99ers across this nation can and will vote in the next presidential election in 2012.
And stress the fact that those millions will only vote for the presidential candidate who will help the 99ers with either a Tier 5 bill being passed or some other bill that will extend benefits beyond 99 weeks for these people.
And also vote for a candidate that will do more than just talk about job creation.
And these 99ers should include that they are a member of the American 99ers Union. A nationwide organization that represents 19 other organizations that have joined forces to give a voice and clout to the millions of unemployed 99ers across this nation
Thanks, Carol for your input. It's important to get organized and the American 99ers Union is a great place to be part of the 99er cause.
Good job on the jobs numbers, Mike! Keep up the great work in 2011, unfortunately... Kian was great too in the video.
Thanks, Marcia. I hope that 2011 brings improvement for 99ers.
I went to an interview the other day, out of 300 resumes they found me and seven other qulified candidates. so out of the seven candidates that went to the interview, they were going only to take three for drug testing and background check then pick one person to hire. It sucks, because almost all the jobs i applied for have som many people applying for just one job. and these companies are taking the one with some experience but will take the least of money and even with that said there are about half who will take minium wage. I am one of them that will take anything right no to have a job. I feel so worthless and depressed because there are no jobs out ther and no help in sight for me
Hey, helpless - I just watched that old Peter Gabriel and Kate Bush video today - " Don't Give Up" - I hope you will focus on your strengths and remember that this is not your fault. Don't feel worthless. Try not to give in to depression. There are people who care. I hope you have some in your life.
Thanks Mike! Excellent job as usual pointing out the truth behind the spin.
With the new way the numbers will be counted, do you know why we have to wait until sometime in February to find out the true numbers and length of time people have been out of work?
That will be an interesting report when it does come out, but it won't separate the long-term unemployed into different camps. As an example, it won't show who has exhausted benefits, but it will show if someone has been out of work for longer than 2 years. Many long-term unemployed have not received any unemployment benefits for one reason or another.
Excellent article Mike and thank you for the honest numbers!
I am getting so frustrated by the lies & deceit coming out of Washington! (as I'm sure many others are also.) Don't those idiots realize that the 99ers & everyone associated with them (friends, families) KNOW that they are lying?
All you have to do, to see that the economy is not getting better, is to look around you. Just in my small area there are more & more businesses closing down & having "going out of business" sales. There are also less & less job ads in the paper, etc. I work a part-time job at a help organization & we are seeing more and more homeless people coming in for help & these are people who USED to make good money. One had been a $20.00 something welder and was now living in the woods on a friends place. He was doing odd jobs like standing on corners holding signs to advertise for companies. Last I saw him he was going to go where the latinos go to wait for what they call "day work". Maybe he has found something as I haven't seen him in a while. To be continued...
Continued from above.
A friend's son works at the Johnson Space Center in Texas & they were warned (last year), that there would be a lot of layoffs in the first quarter of 2011. He is praying that he is not one of them, as my friend who lives with him, is on disablity & that would not leave them much to live on if he gets laid off & can't find another job right away. BUT the economy is getting better - yeah right. If you believe that I have some nice land in SW Florida you might be interested in buying. (For Northerners who don't know I am talking about the Florida Everglades - basically swamp land.)
These are certainly difficult times for many hard workers who want a job. The economy is getting better for Wall Street, but Main Street continues to suffer mightily. As they say, it's a recession if your neighbor loses their job, but a depression if you lose yours. If people weren't affected by the downturn and joblessness, they usually don't care about the plight of those suffering, unfortunately.
This statement upsets up me:
"For those 99ers holding on for hope of Tier 5, with Republicans coming into House control, the Tier 5 legislation outlook is not bright."
As if the 99ers had any help or even a chance under the Democrat controlled house. Seems everything will be the same as usual...
Both parties deserve their share of blame, but with Republicans in control of the House 99er legislation stands an even less of a chance of consideration.
Mike, thanks for the article, but telling US 99ers is not accomplishing much. Why don't the reporters pass these stories on to the White House or their representatives. I am contacting these offices, but i am only one. How about forwarding these stories and comments. And as far as Obama getting elected, the popular vote does not win the election, so saying we won't vote for him is useless. Obama is making the rich happy so they will get him back in. We only had a say in Congress, and people voted for change not thinking that change can mean making it WORSE too, not always better.
Hi TWW. I hope others besides 99ers are reading this, since others need to be convinced to help the long-term unemployed.
If I pass along my stories to other locations, it looks like I'm blowing my own horn, but if readers pass these stories to politicians and media outlets, then it may be more effective.
One of the major problems with all of this that I see every day is that friends and family of the unemployed don't know what is behind the spin. It seems like the vast majority of the country believes whatever their local news is saying and never research further to find out that they are being lied to on a regular basis. For example, my aunt knows how desperate my situation is, but she sent me an email to wish me a Happy New Year and said that wasn't it great that my unemployment was extended for 13 months so I didn't have to worry about it anymore! I set her straight, but haven't gotten a response yet.
With the thousands and millions of calls, emails, faxes, etc. going to all Congressional offices every day, how many are from their constituents who are not unemployed? If it's only us who are contacting them and demanding they do their jobs properly and help by adding more benefit weeks and creating better conditions for companies to create jobs - where is their incentive to do anything?
chicagogal;
I get the exact same response from everyone I talk to about the long term unemployed, family members, friends, strangers, they have no idea that we are being paid using a tier system. Those that have some knowledge of the unemployed situation think every bill passed is for all unemployed! They don't read these blogs or online articles.
If a compromise is made for another federal extension with the blackmailing GOP then it should contain an extension for a period like 1 year for everyone, not these confusing tiers.
If the Democrats and the President are going to wimp out they should at least do it in a way that actually benefits all unemployed.
People are still being laid off, in addition to local government agency’s cutting back as well, laying off police, firemen and sanitation workers. The only government employees not being laid off are senators and congressmen.
I am a 99er. Since I no longer have the ability to contact my unemployment office how will anyone know if I've found a job or not? Once you reach the 99th week there is no communication with the unemployment office. If you are contacting them by phone the prompts end with a comment like "there are no available funds". Then you are disconnected. There is no further information requested.
So exactly how is the number of those that have reached 99 weeks going to be calculated? Another GUESSTIMATE by the government, calculated to make the numbers LOOK GOOD! Like the economy is improving!
The only way to ensure the correct count of people over 99 weeks is to approve a Tier V and count the number of applicants. This is called commonsense, not guess work! We still need money to help us find what little employment that's being currently offered. Or until there are real jobs available!
"The only way to ensure the correct count of people over 99 weeks is to approve a Tier V and count the number of applicants."
Now that is ridiculous, guy. I'm on your side but a census of 99ers would cost a lot less than a new tier.
Hi Tim, Thanks for your reply! Don't get me wrong, you have a good idea, and that's what these blogs should generate good ideas! Exactly how would we conduct a census? As I stated the Unemployment Agency cut off all communication with me after my last payment was received. I think a census would be another delay in our receiving benefits. If congress would only extend Tier 5 for a temporary period for say 2 months. That would generate a correct account who has not been employed after Tier 4 ran out. Once the number of applicants have been collected then we would have a clearer picture of exactly how many 99ers we are fighting for. (and some are fighting for their their lives!)
Neither the president nor any other elected official will do anything until the main stream media (ABC, CBS and NBC) brings to light the fact that the recent bill passed to help the unemployed is misleading and a shameful LIE, to project the image that all of the unemployed is receiving a 13 month extension. News articles indicate payments for the unemployed were held up only since November 2010. (This was only an extension for Tiers 1 thru 4) Payments for those that have exhausted over 99 weeks (requiring a Tier 5) have been stopped since April 2010.
The statement “Mr. Gibbs, speaking on behalf of President Barack Obama believes the best thing the Democratically-Elected White House could do for 99ers, some of whom have not received any payment assistance since April 2010, is to create jobs”. They don’t give a rats butt what happens to these people right now while were waiting for this mythical job creation to become a reality! Will millions of jobs be created next week, next month, in the next couple of months? We needed jobs back in April 2010 when the unemployment payments were eliminated. What were we expected to do in the meantime?
Also without any income since April 2010, how does Mr. Gibbs expect us to get to these imaginary jobs!
thanks, MIke
after 2 years i finally got a job!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Congratulations, chi town kid. I am happy for you. Don't forget the rest of us.
That is wonderful, congradulations and hope all goes well.
thanks mike and happy new year. it was good hearing from you again, feel like i lost a friend, someone who cares. i started feeling like the fight for a tier v has been over. i really hope we all don't give up. over 2 years for me with no light at the end of the tunnel in sight.
Keep up the fight for JOBS and TIER 5.
I can not help but to say that something needs to be done, and done fast. I have just completed two years of collage for my associates degree in teaching, and to find a job is difficult. Most of the schools that I have gone to have not hired a teacher or an assistant teacher in the last 3 to four years. I feel as I have wasted my time, my money, but still continuing school, and maybe I will be able to find something in the field that I am taking for my next degree.
Got something to say?
Examiner.com is looking for writers, photographers, and videographers to join the fastest growing group of local insiders. If you are interested in growing your online rep apply to be an Examiner today!