In terms of sheer numbers, it can be argued that the local Tea Party movement is in decline. The original Tea Party in April 2009 drew about 400 people in a pouring rain, while a subsequent July 4th gathering later that year draw a good crowd on a holiday. But this year, despite beautiful April weather, the crowd at the Tea Party was noticeably slimmer and there was no local July 4th gathering.

Yet the movement may simply be in a state of maturation, with a number of those who participated early on in the protests taking the step forward into electoral politics. On Saturday night a number of Tea Party candidates gathered for a fundraiser at the Westside Community Center, one organized by District 2 County Council aspirant Mike Calpino. While I did not attend that event, this blog post at Right Coast can give you an idea on how it went. (Worthy of noting is that Right Coast author Julie Brewington is a candidate for Delegate herself.)

Aside from the statewide presence of Libertarian candidate for Governor Susan Gaztanaga, the remainder of the candidates who spoke at this "Candidates for Freedom Forum" cut their political teeth in the local Tea Party movement. In fact, it was a tripartisan event with two each of Libertarians, Democrats, and Republicans speaking. But my focus today will begin with the three running for County Council: Calpino, a Libertarian, Mike Brewington, a Democrat, and Chris Lewis, a Republican.

Aside from Calpino, the other two are in three-person primaries for two November ballot slots so it is possible they both could lose to other, more "establishment" party members. But if all three Tea Party hopefuls win it's presumable they could join District 5 Councilman Joe Holloway in providing a four-person tripartisan coalition of fiscal hawks. (In this scenario another fiscal hawk, Stevie Prettyman, is replaced by Calpino. The two at-large seats Brewington, Lewis, and four others are running for are both open as neither current at-large Council member chose to seek re-election.)

Strictly by party affiliation and numbers, the best possible outcome for Democrats would be a 4-2-1 split. In it, the Democrats would hold their two current district seats (Districts 1 and 4) and pick up both at-large seats while Calpino eliminates Prettyman in District 2. A Republican is assured of victory in Districts 3 and 5 as current District 3 Councilman Gail Bartkovich faces only primary opposition and Joe Holloway is unopposed in District 5.

On the other end, it is possible for Republicans to run the table by beating Calpino in District 2, upsetting District 1 incumbent Sheree Sample-Hughes and District 4's David MacLeod, and winning both at-large seats. But conventional wisdom would dictate that control of Wicomico County Council will come down to the two at-large seats, which split in 2006 to give the GOP its current 4-3 majority. It's not clear if the "throw the bums out" mentality exhibited nationwide extends that far down the ticket and would affect the five District Council members who all sought re-election.

However, if the Republicans (or conservatives) get a 5-2 majority, then they can effectively control county business by having veto power over moves the County Executive makes. Obviously this may matter less if anyone but Rick Pollitt wins the County Executive seat but that potential is there.

As for that County Executive seat, Ollinger is unopposed for the GOP nomination so the true barometer of Rick Pollitt's popularity will be how he does in the Democratic primary - with a Tea Party candidate joining Tom Taylor (who garnered 23% of the primary vote against Pollitt in 2006 as an unknown) it's quite possible Pollitt could win via plurality. Both Taylor and Tea Party activist John Wayne Baker can be considered conservative in their financial thinking and may split the anti-Pollitt vote among more centrist Democrats.

While the Tea Party movement may be reviled by some, their message is more resounding. The September primary will be a good trial run to see what impact it may have where it counts - at the ballot box.