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The political tone as indicator of presidential electoral results

It is now apparent that the eventual Republican nominee for President of the United States is former Governor Mitt Romney. It is perhaps now appropriate to evaluate the prospects of his possible eventual electoral success.

Among the perspectives from which this can be viewed include the perspective of the mood of the country, along with that of the popularity of the candidates.

Both of these perspectives are routinely brought into focus by public opinion polls in which right track/wrong track questions are asked and evaluated (mood), and personal characteristic and competence questions are asked and evaluated (popularity).

There are, of course, various other measures of electoral prospects that are not at all scientific but may be classified as anecdotal. These can include the intensity of support or lack thereof for a particular candidate based on things such as the ubiquity or scarcity of yard signs for example; or the extent to which late night talk show comedic hosts poke fun at the candidates in their nightly monologs.

The measure of public sentiment or the extent to which anecdotal observations can gauge the mood of the electorate that is perhaps among the least scientific is evaluating the tone and tenor of public discourse.

We live in an open society in which we have the constitutional right to say nearly anything about anyone that we believe to be true, political rhetoric is an unofficial barometer of public sentimental pressure.

In a climate wherein a sitting U.S. Congressman—Allen West (R-FL)—can declare with impunity, and without contradiction or condemnation from any national Republican leader, that there are between 78-81 Democratic colleagues who are members of the Communist Party, and that they are represented in the House Progressive Caucus; we may know all we need to concerning who would win a national election for President if it was held today.

The lack of national outrage at this statement is perhaps and indication of which side of the political spectrum has the most leeway to freely express over-the-top rhetoric; and therefore which side has more intensity, and therefore which side just may win.


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