The Oscar Racing Form: A tip sheet for the Academy Awards

Christoph Waltz of "Inglourious Basterds," the odds-on favorite for Best Supporting Actor.

(AP Photo/Chris Pizzello)

As if you didn't know, tonight is the 82nd Annual Academy Awards ceremony, hosted by Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, beginning at 7:30 p.m. Central on ABC (WFAA Channel 8 in the Dallas area).

First of all, this tip sheet is about who will win, not who should win. Sure, The Hurt Locker is a brilliant film that is a hell of a lot more relevant than Avatar, James Cameron's 3-D cash machine, but in Hollywood, money talks, and quality walks.

Expect Avatar to sweep the technical awards, and bring home the gold for Best Picture and for its megalomaniacal director. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.

First up, the Best Supporting Actor category:

Matt Damon
Invictus

Woody Harrelson
The Messenger

Christopher Plummer
The Last Station

Stanley Tucci
The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz
Inglourious Basterds

Winner: Waltz, who has won at every other award show so far, and deservedly so.

Best Supporting Actress:

Penélope Cruz
Nine

Vera Farmiga
Up in the Air

Maggie Gyllenhaal
Crazy Heart

Anna Kendrick
Up in the Air

Mo'Nique
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

Winner: Mo'Nique, who, like Waltz, has already won at every other awards show, even the freakin' BAFTAs. I'd love to see either Farmiga or Kendrick win for Up in the Air, but they sort of cancel each other out, and Mo'Nique is unstoppable.

Best Actor:

Jeff Bridges
Crazy Heart

George Clooney
Up in the Air

Colin Firth
A Single Man

Morgan Freeman
Invictus

Jeremy Renner
The Hurt Locker

Winner: Bridges, although Firth or Clooney could pull off an upset. Bridges is not only great in Crazy Heart, but the Academy loves a country singer with problems: Robert Duvall in Tender Mercies, Sissy Spacek in Coal Miner's Daughter, and Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line prove that.

Best Actress:

Sandra Bullock
The Blind Side

Helen Mirren
The Last Station

Carey Mulligan
An Education

Gabourey Sidibe
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

Meryl Streep
Julie & Julia

Winner: Streep, with Bullock as a possible upsetter. Should be Mulligan, but nobody on this side of the pond has seen An Education.

Best Director:

Avatar
James Cameron

The Hurt Locker
Kathryn Bigelow

Inglourious Basterds
Quentin Tarantino

Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Lee Daniels

Up in the Air
Jason Reitman

Winner: Cameron, for reasons stated above. Bigelow, Reitman, and Tarantino all deserve it more, and Bigelow may score an upset, as she did at the Golden Globes, because Cameroon is widely regarded as a tool.

Best Picture:

Avatar

The Blind Side

District 9

An Education

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

A Serious Man

Up in the Air

Winner: Avatar, bitches! With the exception of The Blind Side and District 9, a compelling case could be made for every other film on the list, but money rules, and Avatar made more money than other film in history.

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