The ONLY strategy for defeating Floyd Mayweather

  >>  Photo:  De la Hoya stepped on Floyd's foot (SI)

    . . . continued from  <<   first part

   Intro:  There is one singular strategy that has never been employed against Floyd Mayweather, Jr.  Using it would leverage the element of surprise - which is a critical variable in war.

It is a tactic that has been successfully used before, and a technique that plays to Floyd's weaknesses.  We believe that this plan will also be employed by Freddie Roach to play to Mayweather's massive ego.  We find historical examples of this warplan, including a technique that Hannibal used against several ancient Roman generals which wreaked havoc around the Italian Peninsula over 2,000 years ago.

Secondly, we continue an analysis of four boxers who (temporarily) outfought Floyd Mayweather, Jr.  Undoubtedly, "Money" will be the most prolific defensive and counter-punching opponent both Manny Pacquiao and Freddie Roach will ever face in their hall of fame careers.  That Mayweather is an early slight betting favorite in this fight is the correct initial position from the gambling marketplace.

Do not be distracted by all the name-calling and trash-talking.  That is mere noise.  The movers and shakers of the world dig beneath the surface.  A saying in investment banking:  "(Believe) half of what you see, none of what you hear."  [  >>   Fighter of the Year Award:  Manny Pacquiao ]

   Fact:   Floyd is a terrifc machine.  His talents are a significant variable in determining the outcome of this showdown.  However, the blueprint for his defeat is laid out in three fights:  the first Jose Luis Castillo fight, the early rounds of Zab Judah (covered in the first part of this article), and the second and third rounds of the Oscar de la Hoya fight in 2007.  All three fights involved Floyd Mayweather.  [  >>   Photos:  Mayweather vs De la Hoya  ]

We juxtapose these with five of Manny Pacquiao's bouts with two great (and smaller) counter-punchers - Erik Morales and Juan Manuel Marquez - to see if we can gather any insights.  (The second fight with Marco Antonio Barrera fight also saw a fighter that tried to counter Manny for all 12 rounds.)

No forward-looking analysis is 100% accurate.  There is no Merlin with a magic crystal ball.  However, we explore any habits from trend-analysis as well as prospective gameplans from each fighter in order to maximize each's probability for success.  Additionally, Freddie Roach has implied a strategy against Mayweather, Jr.; that his team would "set up traps."  Roach is already working hard on setting up smokescreens and mirrors for this fight, and in laying down his camp's deceptions.  We explore what "traps" may mean.  [  >>   Article:  Roach's Secret Strategy for Miguel Cotto  ]

   In the words of Winston Churchill:

In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies.

  >>  Photo:  What does Roach mean by "trap?" (SI)

#  3

2007:     Oscar de la Hoya

Rounds 2 and 3  [  video  >>  ]

  The Oscar de la Hoya fight reveals a few insights.  The bigger man (Oscar) was able to back up and over-power Floyd in spurts, often pinning him against the ropes.  Oscar often stepped on Floyd's foot to keep him in place.  That allowed de la Hoya to throw in bunches, while Floyd concentrated on accuracy and points. 

Floyd does not like being pressured, and when he gave openings, he showed vulnerabilities to being hit, especially when his feet and shoulders squared up to face de la Hoya.  Manny Pacquiao's explosiveness will have enough power to force occasional and tactical retreats by Floyd.  Unfortunately for Oscar, he did not throw body punches when Floyd did square up to face him, to leave openings to the body.  Roach and Pacquiao will capitalize on what Oscar did not.

   As mentioned in page one, we believe that Manny Pacquiao has the first four rounds - the first 12 minutes - to "fully make his impression," and to effect Roach's gameplan (or several gameplans).

Lesson 3.1:  Floyd takes about two to three rounds in order to figure out his enemy, and to adjust to his strategy.  He can back up and retreat early on - but he is actually studying and observing his opponent, before figuring out how to win on points.  (See rounds 4 and 5 of the de la Hoya fight where Floyd beautifully crafts his attack and adjusts to Oscar's style.) 

Also, when Oscar tried to bully Floyd in the middle and late rounds, Floyd simply grappled, clenched, and tied up Oscar.  We believe Mayweather can do the same to Manny.  Floyd can hold him up when Manny tries to get inside.  Roach and Pacquiao will work hard at the gym to counter this, perhaps by throwing combinations right before Floyd tries to clench.  A weakness of Pacquiao, however, is that he is not particularly good at fighting inside.

Lesson 3.2:  If Floyd is ahead on the judges' scorecards for most of the first four rounds, then this fight will likely be over.  Mayweather, Jr will play keep away, and with his highly accurate pot shots (as we see below), he will cruise on to a 12-round decision. 

Lesson 3.3:  The early rounds are testing ground for Mayweather to study his opponent's movements, measure his physique and power, and analyze his style and tactics - so that he can figure out how to win on points.  (As stated, it takes him three-plus rounds to figure out an opposing force.)  While he is brilliant at this, it also reveals a major flaw and systematic weakness on his part.  Against a super fighter like Pacquiao, this is Floyd's best chance to win.  When Mayweather was forced into a firefight against then-lightweight champion Jose Luis Castillo, Floyd's brittle hands and suspect chin saw him out-gunned several times during that fight.  The same happened early on with the Judah fight. 

These three lessons will factor into how Freddie Roach formulates his customized strategy against Floyd Mayweather, Jr.  Might we be so bold as to suggest that we know what that gameplan will be.

   In the words of Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz:

If the enemy is to be coerced, you must put him in a situation that is even more unpleasant than the sacrifice you call on him to make. The hardships of the situation must not be merely transient - at least not in appearance. Otherwise, the enemy would not give in, but would wait for things to improve.

   According to Pacquiao sparmate Shawn Porter: "If the referee lets them fight inside a lot, Mayweather could be in trouble. If he allows Mayweather to tie Manny up without warning and deductions he (Floyd) will win a very easy fight.  But if he lets them fight it out?  It could be a war and go either way."

[  >>   Comeback of the Year:  Floyd Mayweather, Jr  ]  In the chart below, we explore six fights between a puncher and counter-puncher, all involving either Manny Pacquiao or Floyd Mayweather, Jr.  There is no time limit to this exercise.  Thus, you are invited to review the statistics below for a few minutes.  Take your time.

The numbers with the plus (+) sign reveal how many more punches were thrown or landed, or reveal how much more accurate a fighter was against his opponent.  The plus (+) sign is the differential, or the margin.

   Styles make fights, sure.  And you cannot compare apples to oranges.  Still, working with limited data we are forced to extrapolate a few key observations from the above chart:

Chart Lesson 1:  Against de la Hoya, Floyd threw much fewer punches (106 less) than Oscar.  Why?  Floyd does not like opening himself up to being countered.  Floyd spent the first three rounds studying Oscar.  He became much more effective and accurate from the fourth round on after learning de la Hoya's style and timing.  Floyd learned to read and telegraph Oscar's punches.  His adjustments allowed him to land 7+ more punches per round.  Over the course of 12 rounds, that led to 85 more landed punches for Floyd.  He also was an incredible 22% more accurate.  More landed punches won him the decision victory.

Implication:  Freddie Roach stated that Manny and himself will set up "traps" for Floyd.  Many boxing observers will take that to mean that Pacquiao will work on getting Floyd to attack, so that Mayweather will be open to counters.  That would be similar to what they did to Miguel Cotto.  As soon as Cotto grew confident in his left jab, Manny lunged forward with his blinding combinations.

Wrong!   Do not be mistaken, Roach's "trap" is not a physical trap.  It is a mental trap.  Think back to Churchill's quote.  Roach wants Camp Mayweather to think that Manny will start the fight like he did with Cotto - slow and cerebral, that way the bigger man thinks the "smaller man" is vulnerable.  And that Floyd can pick Manny apart with accuracy in the early rounds, and score points with the judges.  Pure deception from Roach.

What is the real trap?  What is the real strategy?  What did Germany do in World War II that worked while being surrounded by enemies on all fronts?

Once Floyd believes these deceptions, the Roach-Pacman tandem will execute their true strategy.  An unforeseen, unpredictable Blitzkrieg from the opening bell.  Full assault.  No holds barred.  Roach and Pacquiao will go for an early KO, if they can get it.  From now on, we refer to this strategy as the "Blitzkrieg Strategy."

If an early KO does not materialize, the plan still serves two benefits:  it will soften up Floyd for a later-round breakdown.  He does not take punches well.  Secondly, it may put Pacquiao ahead on the scorecards, which would force Mayweather to fight aggressively later on to try and win back points.  And we saw in the Judah and Castillo fight that Floyd is not an excellent fighter when forced to go on the offensive.  His bread and butter is his shoulder roll defense, which allows him to score points with a very short left hook, or a lightning quick straight from his right.  If someone goes inside, Floyd clenches and ties him up.

Infantry must move forward to close with the enemy.  It must shoot in order to move . . . . To halt under fire is folly.  To halt under fire and not fire back is suicide  - General George S. Patton

Chart Lesson 2:   Manny threw about 100 punches more per fight against Juan Manuel Marquez.  These were two hotly contested bouts.  Despite being much more active, Marquez always landed more punches than Pacquiao.  JMM landed 10 more in the second fight, and 15 more in the first fight.  Manny threw more, JMM landed more.  JMM was more accurate.

Implication:  The theory that Pacquiao will beat Floyd on high work rate is a misleading and incomplete story.  As both JMM fights show (and Floyd is much better than JMM), Manny Pacquiao executing a high work rate does not work over the course of 12 rounds.  In Pacquiao's last loss in 2005, to the counter-punching Erik Morales, Manny threw 180 more punches over 12 rounds, but El Terrible landed nearly 50 more blows.  Morales was more accurate.  Again, for Pacquiao, high work rate over 12 rounds does not work against counter-punchers.  Roach knows this.  He was there working the corner.

This supports the Blitzkrieg Strategy.  Pacquiao will have a high work rate against Floyd - but in the early rounds - as he goes for an early stoppage and / or for early points.

  Will Manny concentrate on the body? (Pound4Pound.com)

   A second theorem.  You cannot succeed as a formulaic fighter against Floyd.  You need multiple strategies.  After the early Blitz, and if Floyd is still standing (most likely he will be), Pacquiao and Roach can execute a more "normal gameplan."

If  he trails on the judges' cards, Floyd will be forced to fight more aggressively (to try and win by decision).  These efforts are covered in the following slideshow with diagrams.  There are plenty of details here, we leave that for your own thinking. 

But Marco Antonio Barrera did say that Manny will need to lunge to his left in order to land a left hook to Floyd's face or body - he believes that is how you beat his tight shoulder roll defense.  We would only add that Pacquiao could also throw uppercuts when he does move to his left.  Additionally, he can throw right hooks to Floyd's left side of the body (see pic to the left), as well as, counter Floyd when the latter comes in.  When Floyd attacked Judah early on (Floyd was being egoistic), the latter timed him with a quick right that sent Floyd's gloves grazing on the canvas (technically a knockdown).

Chart Lesson 3   The third Morales fight shows that the Blitz can shock an opponent.  In under three rounds, Manny threw nearly as much as Morales (175 punches).  However, Pacquiao landed 94 punches to only 44 for Morales.  An incredible 54% vs 26% connect rate in favor of Manny. 

Implication:  The third Morales fight shows that Manny Pacquiao can throw in blinding bunches but still achieve high accuracy.  If the Blitz strategy works, that means he will blast all kinds of powerful barrages at Floyd in the first three to four rounds (it takes Floyd three rounds to adjust to a gameplan), and potentially still be accurate.  The high work rate combined with high accuracy will translate to points racked up on the judges' scorecards.

It is important to note that Ricky Hatton applied the full court press on Floyd early in their fight, which bothered Mayweather.  A big left from Hatton sent Floyd tumbling back in the early rounds, which forced Mayweather to grab the ropes to maintain his balance.  However, we can suggest that no one has ever tried a "shock and awe" Blitz attack on Floyd, which means there is still a critical element of surprise in this plan of attack.

In the words of General George S. Patton:

It is only by doing things others have not that one can advance.

If the Roach-Pacquiao team tries something cute or fancy early on, it may be something that Floyd has already seen and / or something that Floyd can easily adjust to with his superior boxing skills.  Blitzkrieg - the Manny Pacquiao version - is something Floyd has not yet experienced, and thus have not learned to deal with.  And if Roach succeeds in his mind games, Floyd (and his camp) will not be expecting it either.

  DeMarcus Corley vs Mayweather (HBO Sports)

#  4

2004:     DeMarcus Corley

Rounds 3 and 4 [ video ] and Round 5 [ video ]

From rounds three to five, Floyd Mayweather, Jr stood toe-to-toe and went offensive against DeMarcus Corley in a 140 lb bout in 2004.  Not using his shoulder roll defense as much in these early rounds, Floyd's stance allowed him to be countered by the spirited Corley.  The latter's power also appeared to affect Floyd in certain spurts, and Corley landed hooks by way of counter punches.  Floyd became effective when he in turn countered Corley. 

This fight is important for a reason.  In the speculations and pre-fight analyses that will circulate in the weeks leading up to the Pacquiao vs Mayweather showdown, many will note that Roach will somehow try to open up Floyd early in the fight by getting him to throw his jabs and right straights. 

Freddie Roach's Gameplan:

If you buy into (and believe) the above arguments, then we believe the optimal strategic warplan for defeating Floyd Mayweather, Jr (40-0) is in the following:

1. "Shock and awe" Blitzkrieg attack in the first four rounds.  Go for early stoppage, and at the very least, earn points from judges. 
2. The critical element for #1 is Manny's ability to be accurate despite throwing high volumes of punches.  High work rate (in the early rounds) by Pacquiao must be accompanied by accuracy (i.e.,  third Morales fight).  If Pacquiao is not accurate, Floyd will make him pay dearly with counters that will be accurate and highly effective - particularly in the form of a straight right that will travel so fast Manny will not see them coming.
3. Manny Pacquiao has four rounds to swarm Floyd.  He must force his enemy to be incapable of thinking.  The clever smarts of Mayweather must be rendered incapacitated.  That is the art of warfare.  In past fights, Roach and Pacquiao have taken away the physical arsenal of opponents - i.e., they took away Oscar's left hook.  For this fight, Roach and Manny will focus on taking away their enemy's mental prowess.
4. To overwhelem Floyd, Roach and Manny will work daily on honing the ability to cut off the ring, so that Pacquiao can fully leverage his explosiveness.  The big weapons will be the lunging left hook, a right hook to the body, and the occasional "Mt. Pinatubo" uppercut.  Blows to the body also cannot be underestimated in significance.  Floyd hates being hit in the face - he is "Pretty Boy" - and that may leave openings to the body.

Historical Perspective:

Nazi Germany laid the modern template for Blitzkrieg during World War II.  Time was the critical factor in their war, as they were completely surrounded by opposing or neutral forces by land and by water.  Thus, they had to win quickly.  Similarly, Roach will prefer to not let the fight drag out.  That would increase the chance of Floyd being able to dictate the tempo and pace.

In the ancient world, Hannibal (one of the ancient world's greatest military commanders) had an interest in directly engaging with the Roman legions (so long as landscape and weather conditions were favorable).  Several Roman generals had particularly massive egos.  Hannibal tailored his strategy to play these egos like strings on a guitar.  To show nearby towns that Rome was no threat to the invading Gauls, Hannibal marched his armies in clear view of fortified cities, taunting the generals - to get them to come out and fight. 

One general set up camp near a river.  Hannibal attacked them in early dawn, knowing the commanding general was hot-tempered.  The general ordered his troops to chase Hannibal's forces across the river.  The Roman legions, early in the morning, crossed the ice cold river.  The Romans got surrounded and was slaughtered on the other side.  In one direct engagement, the Gauls (Hannibal's side) slaughtered over 60,000 Romans in six hours.

The lesson?  Military commanders throughout history have shown that there is a way to make a smart enemy (temporarily) mentally incapable.  You do that by removing information or by supplying false data (deception).  You keep him guessing.  Your forces become unpredictable, with no trace of trend or habit.  Make sure he cannot think properly.  In boxing's setting, that is accomplished with the Blitz.  Commanders have also played to their opponent's ego; getting them to make mistakes based on emotion and / or sense of self-importance.  In thousands of years of warfare, there have been thousands of opposing commanders with a personality trait similar to Floyd Mayweather, Jr.

   Conclusion:  When the scrolls are written, there will be a story to this Blitz strategy.  And it is symbolic.  If Pacquiao can pull it off, he will have come full circle in his life and in his boxing career.  A street brawler from the alleys of General Santos.  To an evolved two-fisted boxer.  And back to brawler.

Final Lesson:  When you have a clever, smart fighter, do not fight him in games requiring cleverness or smarts. Fight him in areas that require strength and brute force.  In school, there is a way to defeat the smartest guy in class.  You beat him into submission in basketball or football.  You give him a bloody nose.  You taunt him.  Make him feel like coming from a privileged background somehow takes away from his manhood.  You break his will and morale.  If, however, you allow a smart fighter and / or student to oppose you in ways of the books, poetry, the arts, you are dead.  You have played to his strengths, and in the art of warfare that is suicide.

Floyd Mayweather, Jr is undefeated at 40-0 in part because he has out-thought and out-adjusted his opponents.  By way of the same analogy, why would Roach want to give him a chance to think?  Why would "Master" Freddie give Mayweather the opportunity to study his opponent, and to adjust to a formulaic style?

There is a final and dark reason from Freddie Roach and Manny Pacquiao to implement an early Blitzkrieg:  respect.  Floyd is dismissive of Manny and considers him "easy work."  The Mayweathers have been insulting "joke coach" Roach.  We believe that Freddie wants to sadistically exact revenge, and that Manny wants to force Floyd to respect him, not in a good way, but by way of savagery.   Muhammad Ali incessantly taunted Joe Frazier, calling him an "ugly gorilla."  Only when Frazier brought him to the brink of death, in 14 rounds of hell, did Ali finally respect him inside and outside of the ring.  Ali himself said that he felt he was going to die in "Thrilla in Manila."  Both men reportedly pissed blood after the fight. 

Manny grew up with nothing.  Floyd flaunts his material excesses and ego.  That provides combustible material.  In human psychology, you do not gain an egoistic person's respect by beating him in material excesses or prestige.  They will only get envious and try to one-up you.  The way to earn an ego-driven person's respect is to give him a busted lip.  Some people cannot be reasoned with.  They only respond to force (pain).  Floyd - like the Batman and Joker dynamic - is such a personality.

   The Blitz as a plan by "Master" Freddie Roach is customized for his graduating pupil - a special lesson for the valedictorian of the class.  Manny Pacquiao has already executed the Blitz in his old days, in the late 1990s and early 2000s, as a one-armed brawler.  He closes off his career against a prolific boxing wizard - a pugilistic Merlin. 

Returning to his roots, but this time armed with two-equally deadly arms, on March 13 Roach reveals a strategy, and Manny Pacquiao discloses his awesome firepower early, early, and early.  Pressing the action . . . always pressing the action.  Forcing an indomitable will.  Taunting Floyd.  Like in a schoolyard bullying session, trying to get him to drip blood . . .

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