The United States presidential election is now 259 days away, with the White House being the ultimate prize for both political parties. As many Americans discovered in the 2000 presidential election, when Al Gore won the popular vote, it is the electoral vote count that actually matters in determining who will be the next President of the United States. The Republican nomination is still up for grabs, but pollsters can still ask respondents to pit Obama against a number of potential candidates. Below one can see the latest breakdown for each state along with the latest polling, if any, done on the 2012 race. Since the last update, new polls have been released in the states of Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Georgia, Missouri, and Wisconsin. A prediction of the 2012 map based on the new polls can be seen to the left. Follow me on Twitter or Facebook to receive continual updates up through election day.
A state is called “safe” based on the 2008 results, and should not be strictly interpreted to mean that this state will not be in play in 2012. Beside each state is listed the candidate who polled strongest against President Obama (usually Mitt Romney with a few exceptions). President Obama’s poll number is listed first, followed by the Republican challenger’s number. Analysis is also provided after the tables below.
Safe Obama States
State, Electoral Votes, Result in 2008, Latest Polling
California 55 61%-37% 54%-35% (Romney) (L.A. Times/USC 8/28)
Connecticut 7 61%-38% 47%-45% (Romney) (PPP 9/30)
Delaware 3 62%-37%
Hawaii 4 72%-27%
Illinois 20 62%-37%
Maine 4 58%-40% 49%-40% (Romney) (PPP)
Maryland 10 62%-37%
Massachusetts 11 62%-36% 57%-37% (Romney) (PPP)
Michigan 16 57%-41% 50%-39% (Santorum) (PPP 2/15)
New Hampshire 4 54%-45% 50%-42% (Paul) (WMUR/UNH 2/4)
New Jersey 14 57%-42% 53%-39% (Romney) (PPP 7/22)
New Mexico 5 57%-42% 53%-37% (Romney) (PPP)
New York 29 63%-36%
Oregon 7 57%-41% 50%-38% (Romney) (PPP)
Pennsylvania 20 55%-44% 43%-45% (Romney) (Susquehanna 2/9)
Rhode Island 4 63%-35%
Vermont 3 68%-31%
Washington 12 58%-41% 51%-40% (Romney) (PPP)
Washington D.C. 3 93%-7%
Wisconsin 10 56%-43% 48%-40% (Romney) (Marquette 1/25)
*Nebraska's 2nd Dist. 1 50%-49% 49-37% (Romney) (PPP)
Total (270 needed to win) 242
Safe Republican States
Alabama 9 39%-61%
Alaska 3 38%-60%
Arizona 11 45%-54% 42%-49% (Romney) (PPP 11/28)
Arkansas 6 39%-59%
Idaho 4 36%-61%
Kansas 6 42%-57%
Kentucky 8 41%-58%
Louisiana 8 39%-59%
Mississippi 6 43%-56% 40%-46% (Romney) (PPP)
Nebraska 4 42%-57%
North Dakota 3 45%-53%
Oklahoma 7 34%-66%
South Carolina 9 45%-54% 45%-42% (Romney) (NBC News/Marist 12/11)
South Dakota 3 45%-53%
Tennessee 11 42%-57% 41%-48% (Romney) (PPP)
Texas 38 44%-55% 42%-50% (Romney) (PPP)
Utah 6 34%-63% 23%-63% (Huntsman) (PPP 7/13)
West Virginia 5 43%-56% 37%-50% (Romney) (PPP)
Wyoming 3 33%-65%
Total (270 needed to win) 150
Swing States
Colorado 9 54%-45% 47%-45% (Romney) (PPP 12/7)
Florida 29 51%-48% 47%-46% (Santorum) (Rasmussen 2/10)
Georgia 16 47%-52% 43%-51% (Gingrich) (Survey USA 2/3)
Indiana 11 50%-49%
Iowa 6 54%-45% 42%-49% (Paul) (Des Moines Register 2/19)
Minnesota 10 54%-45% 46%-46% (Romney) (St. Cloud State U. 11/14)
Missouri 10 49%-50% 42%-49% (Gingrich) (PPP 2/2)
Montana 3 47%-50% 41-49% (Romney) (PPP)
Nevada 6 55%-43% 44%-41% (Romney) (Rasmussen 12/22)
North Carolina 15 50%-49% 47%-46% (Romney) (PPP 2/9)
Ohio 18 46%-42% 46%-44% (Romney) (Quinnipiac 2/15)
Virginia 13 53%-47% 42%-46% (Santorum) (CNU/Times Dispatch 2/20)
Total 146
Analysis:
The polling picture is currently somewhat muddled as the Republicans decide who will be their eventual nominee. In some ways the Republicans may be under-polling at this point, since they are not united behind one candidate and presumably will be in November. However, there is also some reason to suggest the Republicans are over-polling, since the Obama campaign has also not even begun to run negative ads against any of the Republicans. President Obama has been taking a verbal beating from the candidates over the last two months, yet still is polling well before his campaign has even begun to counter-punch. For these reasons, I assume that the eventual Republican nominee will perform about as well as the current numbers suggest. This is a very large assumption, so as is the case with all projections this should be viewed with a healthy amount of skepticism.
President Obama is still winning most of the “safe” states that he won by a large margin in 2008. President Obama has rebounded in the most recent poll of Michigan, where he now polls well ahead of all Republicans. One poll does show President Obama trailing in Pennsylvania, but at this point the state is still projected to go to Obama in the end based on historical trends and the superior organizational effort Obama has in the state.
Virginia was given to the Republican based on the most recent poll from CNU/Times Dispatch as well as the razor-thin margin Obama won the state by in 2008. North Carolina is also very close, but was given to Obama based on the most recent polling as well. There is no polling for Indiana, but the state was given to Republicans based on what is assumed to be weaker results for Obama there compared to 2008, when he won by less than one percentage point.
Florida and Ohio look to be once again the key states that may determine the election. These two states to Obama based on the most recent polls, the 2008 results, as well as the unpopular Republican governors in the two states. The polling in Florida is particularly illustrative. Even after Republicans spent weeks criticizing the Obama administration there ahead of the Republican primary, polls still show the president leading all GOP contenders before the Obama campaign has even begun to accuse the Republicans of “slashing” Medicare and Social Security.
As for the Republican “safe” states, the polls show that the GOP candidates should be able to hold on to most, if not all, of the electoral victories they gained in 2008. The Obama team may look to challenge in Arizona, where the changing demographics and recent immigration controversy may have created an opportunity.
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