The chase for the championship contenders

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series visits the New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend for the first of two races at the 1.058-mile track known as the ‘Magic Mile’.  The next time the drivers head to New England in September, we will know which twelve drivers will vie for the Sprint Cup championship. 

This weekend begins a ten-race stretch leading up to the Chase, so I have examined the season up to this point coinciding with the upcoming races and tracks, and formulated my twelve-man Chase projection. 

Who will qualify for the Chase in 2009?

1.

Tony Stewart:

It will take a bizarre series of events for Stewart to miss the Chase for the Championship.

2.

Jimmie Johnson:

Johnson is already in prime position to defend his three consecutive championships.

3.

Jeff Gordon:

His performance has marginally dropped since the first quarter of the season, but he is still a championship favorite.

4.

Kurt Busch:

Kurt Busch’s performance rivals that of the top three.  He may be about a half step behind Stewart, Johnson, and Gordon.

5.

Carl Edwards:

While it is unlikely that he will win nine races in 2009, Edwards should have no difficulties qualifying for the twelve-man show. 

6.

Greg Biffle:

Biffle has flown under the radar for most of this season, but his performance speaks volumes.  He is on the verge of winning a race or two, and barring a series of bad luck, he will be fighting for the title. 

7.

Ryan Newman:

Newman is the comeback driver of the season thus far, and he should cruise into the Chase.  However, this team has a few weaknesses they must improve upon, such as the intermediate tracks.   

8.

Mark Martin:

From a performance standpoint, Martin has enjoyed a phenomenal season.  Nevertheless, Mr. Consistency has lacked the latter part of his nickname.  It is difficult to imagine Martin missing the cut. 

9.

Kyle Busch:

Kyle Busch boasts three wins, but he only has five top ten finishes after sixteen races.  He is in the danger zone, but if he keeps his cool, he should return to the Chase for a fourth consecutive season.

10.

Matt Kenseth:

Despite his Chase bubble status, it is difficult to imagine a championship chase with the 2003 champion. Kenseth will get the job done when it counts.

11.

Denny Hamlin:

Hamlin scored consecutive top five finishes giving him some breathing room in the Chase bubble.  This team has had trouble dodging misfortune this season, and because of that, he will have reason to worry as September approaches.

12.

Kasey Kahne:

Following his win at Infineon, Kahne now has momentum on his side.  Still, Kahne won twice last year, and faded out of Chase contention.  In 2006, he nearly missed the Chase after five wins in the first twenty-five races of the season.  He must avoid a mid-season collapse.  He should barely squeeze into the field of twelve.

Who will barely miss the cut?

Juan Pablo Montoya:

Montoya is a much better driver than he was in 2007 and 2008, but he is a year or so away from qualifying for the Chase. 

David Reutimann:

Reutimann has been in the hunt all year, but he may fall short due to lack of experience. 

Clint Bowyer:

Richard Childress Racing has fallen behind, and after boasting three cars in the Chase in 2007 and 2008, it is likely that no RCR representatives will earn a spot in the top twelve in 2009.

Jeff Burton:

See Clint Bowyer comment

Brian Vickers:

This team is just not consistent enough to qualify for the Chase for the Championship.