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The case against Victor Ortiz

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Floyd Mayweather (he “ain’t no junior”) versus Victor Ortiz on Saturday will ultimately not be worth the price of a pay-per-view buy—as least as far as the main event is concerned. If you would like to save some scratch, go find a watering hole that is taking a mixed martial arts break to throw a bone to fight fans. Alternatively, convince a friend to buy and spot him a six pack of premium suds. If your buddy isn’t worth Busch Light, then get real time scoring of the main event on Twitter.

Exhibit A: it’s all about reach.

Even though he is the shorter man, Mayweather has a two inch reach advantage over Ortiz. The translation is that Ortiz is going to have to fight on the outside, which is a wee bit outside of his comfort zone. Not that Mayweather is known for being an outside fighter either, he really isn’t, but he isn’t stupid (at least with fight preparation). Expect him to show more outside game in this one.

Exhibit B: it’s all about defense.

The one curiosity in the fight is whether Mayweather will finally show evidence of age and ring rust. He didn’t in his beat down of Shane Mosley over a year ago, but then again Mosley didn’t show up. Assuming arguendo that Mayweather has lost a step or dozen, what’s the last attribute to leave an aging fighter? Defense. Floyd is a defensive master and will allow Ortiz to pin him on the ropes to showcase the same and open up counterpunch buffet for Ortiz to snack on.

Exhibit C: it’s all about the jab (or lack thereof).

The best advice the Oscar De La Hoya could give Ortiz is to jab his arse off. The problem though is that Victor doesn’t have a very good one. As such, Mayweather is going to be the ring general and Ortiz will fall in line.

Exhibit D: it’s all about heart (or lack thereof).

The problem with fighters like Ortiz is that you can train the hell out of them, get them the best sparring partners, teach them new skills, blah, blah. The foregoing game plan is time tested but it has never been able to overcome simple DNA. Ortiz is a warrior, no question, but he has also shown direct evidence of surrender (see Marcos Maidana). A fighter with a surrender trigger, regardless of how deeply it is buried gray matter, will not defeat Mayweather.

The evidence above aside, expect Ortiz to be spirited in a Ricky Hatton sort of way. He will be game and a live opponent, perhaps even better than Mayweather believes him to be. Like Hatton, however, Ortiz’s raw determination will create too many mistakes and Floyd will make him pay. To defeat Mayweather, it is a game of chess, not checkers.

Prediction: Mayweather will win by stoppage in round 9.

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