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The 50s Are Back(Not The Decade, But Rather The Temperature)!

The next seven days ahead
The next seven days ahead
Scott Derek

At Philly International this morning we reached a low of 30 just after sunrise despite a mostly cloudy sky; we reached a high of 48 just before 4pm which actually felt quite good! Granted there were more clouds than sunshine, but thanks to warm air advection(that's warmer air working into a region of cooler air) we will not drop below freezing overnight for the first night in a while!

Not only is there a cold front to the west, but also a short wave offshore providing some light rain overnight.
National Weather Service, Upton NY

Overnight we'll be in the middle 30s with an overcast sky, but to the south and east across Delaware and Southern NJ there may be a few light rain showers after Midnight; this is due to a short wave along the coast providing some moisture, but it's gone by daybreak. Sunday itself will remain cloudy with just some isolated showers as the cold front inches closer. Highs will be in the lower 50s! That's over ten degrees above average! Enjoy it while you can(trust me though; no one will be outside at all as we'll be inside cooking or stocking up on chips and beer for the Super Bowl!) because overnight Sunday temperatures will be in the middle 30s with some light rain as an area of low pressure riding along the front pushes northward. Monday itself shall be interesting with temperatures falling by mid-morning once the front pushes through and since there will still be moisture available from the area of low pressure we can see some wet snow.

As for accumulations I don't see more than a couple of inches falling; how come? Well, since temperatures will be in the middle 30s it will take more moisture to provide frozen precipitation and so we'll have those big fat flakes. ALSO this means that we will have a much lower snow ratio than these past storms(Wednesday's snow ratio was 30:1; that means for every inch of moisture would equate to 30 inches of snow!) around 5:1-8:1. If you looked at model guidance this afternoon you may have seen snowfall outputs in excess of 6" by Monday evening, BUT that was based off of a 10:1 snow ratio; what I just told you would cut that POTENTIAL in half! It's still over a day away so let's wait on a snowfall map(if any would need to be made anyway).

My MAJOR concern is that Monday night we'll be down to around 20 so whatever falls(whether wet or frozen) will freeze overnight and cause driving headaches once again. Anyway, for Tuesday it will be in the middle 30s with sunshine before we cloud up for the next system; at least temperatures will be rising overnight so although we may have some snow early it will change over to a cold rain with temperatures rising toward 40 or better come Wednesday afternoon.

So we're still in that 2-3 day stormy pattern; you can check out the rest of the seven day forecast any time at www.scottderekwx.com/forecast.html.