As we speculated might happen when this writer explained some of the difficulties facing Herman Cain in denying the "sexual harassment" and marital infidelity allegations against him, Herman Cain made a public announcement that he was "suspending" his presidential campaign, with one Atlanta television station-the same one which reportedly leaked Cain's alleged affair with Ms. Ginger White-leading Politico into a story that Cain will endorse former House Speaker Newt Gingrich today. Herman Cain proved to be quite popular among Tennessee Republicans looking for an underdog to back-especially among those looking for the anti-Romney.
Polls in Iowa seem to be crystallizing around the idea that Gingrich is the conservative choice in that State, which may put Gingrich in a legitimate position to do battle with Romney in New Hampshire. If Cain endorses Gingrich, he may throw more conservative support in Tennessee behind Newt, even as we know that Haslam family money and political push are behind Mitt Romney. That kind of political pull may wield results in Statewide races, but in 2008, we saw a clear backlash from social conservatives against the prevailing establishment wisdom when they chose Mike Huckabee in the Tennessee primary over John McCain or Mitt Romney. If more conservative primary voters are in that kind of mood in 2012, and they see Gingrich as their only option against a former Massachusetts Governor with a liberal record who can't even decide if he is pro-life this week, they may choose Gingrich as well.
Just as the 2012 presidential campaign is very fluid at this point, so is the primary race in Tennessee itself. Perhaps the biggest question for interested Tennesseans may be what kind of role Tennessee will end up playing in the nomination process. In 2008, Tennessee ended up having a quasi-major role in keeping former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in the campaign for as long as he was. According to the current schedule of primaries and caucuses, Tennessee appears to be set to vote on March 6th, which-if there are no major changes in the primary calendar before that date-will be Super Tuesday.
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