State Sen. Roy Herron (D-Dresden)
State Senator Roy Herron bragged about winning a Democratic straw poll up in Sullivan County over the weekend, causing grumbling from other Democrats that the result does not matter:
With his strong win in the first straw poll in Rutherford County, Sen. Herron has now won the first two Democratic straw polls by large margins.
“I am humbled and grateful to the voters of Sullivan County,” Sen. Herron said. “The people here in northeast Tennessee are just like those I represent in middle and west Tennessee: hard-working, family-loving, God-fearing people. I’m grateful for their kindness to me today.”
One has to feel for the Democrats, because they all know that legislative races notwithstanding, unless something changes drastically with the developing political dynamic in Tennessee the Democratic nominee will be beaten. Without some major political help, they will be badly beaten. This is not because the voters have predetermined the result, but because both the media and most political pundits have determined that the next Governor will be a Republican.
Democrats have not helped to reverse this predetermination, as they don't have a Statewide "star" to bring to the table. Virtually no one knows who Ward Cammack is outside of Nashville, and some Davidson Countians may not even be overly familiar with Cammack. As fine a speaker as he is on the Senate floor, Roy Herron is known amongst those of us who are political hacks, but few in other parts of the State know him. It is probably the case that the Democrats who backed Herron in Sullivan County represented an assortment of East Tennessee Democrats, not Sullivan County alone. Kim McMillan has a long record as a legislator and member of Democratic Leadership from her former service in the General Assembly, but unless you follow the Legislature closely, you probably don't know who she is. People will soon figure out that Mike McWherter is (former Governor) Ned Ray's son, but he isn't doing a great job spreading his name or his message so far.
By contrast, everyone who watches the news knows Zach Wamp is a Congressman, and if they don't know that Bill Haslam is the Mayor of Knoxville, they do know that his family owns one of the largest gasoline retailers in the country. A year ago, not many voters outside of East Tennessee or Nashville proper could identify Ron Ramsey as the Lieutenant Governor, but now Ramsey has become a Statewide fixture. None of the Democratic candidates can boast Statewide name recognition, but the only competative Republican who can't is Shelby County District Attorney Bill Gibbons.
For Democrats, winning the nomination of their party ought to be of little importance to them collectively. They all should be more concerned with how their party intends to win the General Election. Fortunately for the GOP, the fight for the Democratic nomination for Tennessee Governor is likely to strengthen the Republican gubernatorial hand even further.
Comments
I"m not sure how much name recognition and media really play in this upcoming race. Historically Tennessee voters have always given governors two terms, switching to the other party every 8 years. Of course there are exceptions to this, but I think history shows this will likely be a trend that will continue. We went from Alexander, to McWherter, to Sundquist to Bredesen.
JIM KYLE is polling higher than all the Democratic candidates you mentioned.
McWherter is running strictly on his dad's name ID and is absolutely horrible in person which is why he never attends any events. Herron is busy pushing his Christian agenda and McMillan and Cammack have about as much of a chance as a snowball in August.
Everyone knows Herron has been stuffing the ballot boxes for these straw polls. Many reporters have mentioned that he always manages to get more votes than there are people in attendance. Obviously, he is buying lots of tickets and then voting for himself in a desperate attempt to prove he is popular. Just sad.
Clayton-
The "party switch" phenomenon is actually a relatively recent historical development that began with the election of Winfield Dunn. Prior to that, the Democratic Primary usually decided the Governorship. I think the propensity to switch up was probably the result of the corruption of the Blanton Administration.
Just a historical note.
Tom-I like Kyle as a person, but I think even he knows that if he is the Democratic nominee, he will be a placeholder.
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