With 31 teams having already earned spots in the 2013 NCAA Tournament as a result of winning their respective conferences, there are 33 spots open for at-large bids.
This article will predict which teams will earn an at-large bid.
Atlantic 10: St. Joseph’s, which earned the conference’s automatic bid, upset 11th-ranked Dayton (27-2) in the semifinals of the conference tournament. The Flyers went 14-0 in the A-10 regular season and are definitely in.
Other teams to be considered: Charlotte (24-5), Fordham (24-8) and Duquesne (23-7)
In: Duquesne. Duquesne is ranked 39th in the RPI rankings and has the 78th hardest schedule. The Dukes were 7-3 in their last 10 games. Five of the Dukes’ losses were to teams that are going to be in the NCAA Tournament. Duquesne was 2-1 against teams ranked in the top-25.
Bubble: Charlotte. Charlotte has an RPI of 57 but their strength of schedule is 147. The 49ers won 13-of-their last 14 games but were upset by Temple (48-45) in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament. Charlotte did not play a ranked team this year and lost to Florida State and Toledo by double digits.
Out: Fordham. Fordham made it to the conference tournament finals and has a decent RPI 69 but their strength of schedule is 152. Plus five of the Rams losses were by double digits.
Bubble: Boston University. Albany was the dominant team in the America East Conference and won the conference tournament but Boston University (23-5) was a close second. The Terriers, who won 20 of-their last 22 games, has an RPI of 55 but a strength of schedule of 196.
Boston University. has a top-15 defense and was 1-1 against teams ranked in the top-25. The Terriers big win came against St. John’s.
ACC:
In: North Carolina (28-6), Maryland (24-7) and Florida State (22-9)
Bubble: Miami (Fla.) 22-11. Miami has a RPI of 59 and a strength of schedule of 65. The Hurricanes are 7-3 in their last 10 games. Miami is 2-7 against ranked teams with their biggest victory coming against Duke. The Hurricanes lost six games away from home as well as three times to Florida State, with each being by double figures.
Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast (27-6) was upset by Stetson in the conference tournament championship game but they should have done enough to secure an at-large bid.
In: Florida Gulf Coast. FGCU has a RPI ranking of 51 but their strength of schedule is only 159. FGCU has won 21-of-their last 22 contests and went through the conference season undefeated.
FGCU beat Stetson twice and Hampton once (both are NCAA bound). FGCU’s only bad loss was at home to Central Florida.
Big 12
In: Iowa State (23-8), Oklahoma (22-10) and Oklahoma State (21-10). Iowa State is the only sure thing as they finished second in the conference regular season and second in the conference tournament. Oklahoma struggled against ranked teams (1-6) but split with Oklahoma State and took both games from Texas Tech. The Sooners have a solid RPI (31) and a good strength of schedule (24).
Oklahoma State has been up and down since the start of conference schedule. The Cowgirls have a RPI ranking of 36 and a schedule rating of 44. Oklahoma State went 2-4 against ranked teams and were 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Cowgirls whipped up on Iowa State (71-42) at home but went 1-2 against Texas Tech, though their win came in the Big 12 Tournament.
Bubble: Texas Tech (21-10). Texas Tech has a RPI of 46 and a strength of schedule of 53. The Red Raiders have lost three straight and are just 5-6 in their last 11 games. They are 2-4 against ranked teams. Two of Texas Tech’s 10 losses are questionable. These shaky losses were at New Mexico and at Kansas State.
Big East
In: Connecticut (29-4), Syracuse (24-7), Louisville (24-8), South Florida (21-10), Villanova (21-10) and DePaul (21-11).
Bubble: St. John’s (18-12). The St. John’s Red Storm are squarely on the bubble. The Red Storm are 8-2 in their last 10 games but 0-6 versus ranked teams. St. John’s has an RPI of 38 and a strength of schedule of 11.
Big 10:
In: Penn State (27-5), Nebraska (23-8), Michigan State (24-8), Iowa (20-12) and Michigan (21-10). Penn State, Nebraska and Michigan State are easily in.
Michigan’s and Iowa’s status is shaky. Michigan is 5-5 in their last 10 games and 1-4 against ranked teams. The Wolverines have an RPI of 34 and a strength of schedule of 33. Iowa (20-12). Iowa has a RPI of 42 and a strength of schedule of 21. The Hawkeyes are 6-3 against ranked teams but just 4-6 in their last 10 games.
Big West:
Bubble: Pacific (25-7). Pacific, the conference’s regular season champion, lost to second-seeded Cal Poly 63-49 in the conference tournament finals. The Tigers were 0-3 against Cal Poly this season and 0-1 against ranked teams.
Pacific has a good number of wins but a shaky RPI (50) and a pretty mediocre strength of schedule (115).
SEC:
In: Kentucky (27-5), Tennessee (24-7), South Carolina (24-7), Georgia (24-7), Vanderbilt (20-11) and LSU (21-10).
Pac-12:
In: California (27-3), Colorado (25-6) and UCLA (25-7)
Other teams in: Creighton (24-7), San Diego St. (26-6) and San Diego (21-9)
Creighton tied Wichita State for the best regular season record in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Blue Jays went 8-3 in their last 11 games and two those losses came against Illinois State. They were 1-2 against ranked opponents.
San Diego State won 17-of-their-last 18 games and were the Mountain West regular season champions. The Aztecs possesses a 48 RPI and an 123 strength of schedule.
San Diego finished second in the WCC Tournament as well as runners-up during the regular season. The Torroes won 10-of-their last 12 games and are 58th in RPI rankings.
Other teams on the bubble: Toledo (27-3) and Saint Mary's (20-10)
Toledo won the MAC West Division (15-1) but fell to Central Michigan in the semifinals of the conference tournament. The Rockets have a 45 RPI but a 206 strength of schedule ranking.
The last two teams in: Toledo and St. John's.
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